Bitcoin is increasingly being described as in a bear market, but this cycle looks very different from the brutal downturns of the past.

Analysts from CryptoQuant, Coinbase, Glassnode, and CoinShares argue that Bitcoin has entered a bearish regime after falling more than 40% from its 2025 peak and trading below key long-term moving averages. Derivatives markets show defensive positioning, demand has weakened, and liquidity—especially from stablecoins and investment products—has contracted. By traditional and structural measures, the market fits the definition of a bear phase.

However, this downturn is marked by a major shift in behavior: institutions are not fleeing. Surveys show a sharp rise in the number of professional investors calling the market “bearish,” yet most are maintaining or even increasing exposure, with many viewing Bitcoin as undervalued. This suggests the term “bear market” now reflects a change in market regime rather than broad capitulation.

Analysts say the end of the bear market will likely be signaled by three developments: Bitcoin reclaiming and holding above key long-term trend levels, sustained inflows and stronger demand, and a normalization of risk appetite in derivatives markets. One of these signals may already be starting to improve, but confirmation is still limited.

Looking ahead, forecasts vary. Some expect a prolonged crypto winter lasting into late 2026 with deeper price lows. Others see a shorter, range-bound period of consolidation followed by recovery as selling pressure fades. A third view argues that the old four-year halving cycle has broken down and that liquidity and capital flows—not the calendar—will determine when the bear phase ends.

Overall, this bear market may last longer in time but be less severe in percentage losses than past cycles, reflecting a more mature market structure supported by ongoing institutional participation.