🔥 Something just shifted — and most people haven’t noticed.

If the Fed hands control to Christopher Waller, this isn’t a minor policy change. It’s a slow-burn stress test for the entire market.

Waller’s framework looks neat on paper: AI lifts productivity, productivity cools inflation, inflation allows aggressive balance-sheet runoff, and rate cuts deliver a “soft landing.” Elegant — but risky.

Draining trillions in liquidity raises real interest rates. That pressure hits Treasuries first: bonds weaken, yields rise, spreads widen, and confidence cracks. At the same time, rate cuts structurally weaken the dollar. When bonds sell off and the dollar softens together, equities don’t escape. You get synchronized downside across stocks, bonds, and FX — a setup most portfolios aren’t built to survive.

This is why Powell moved cautiously. Not from hesitation, but from understanding how fragile the system already is. One misstep can trigger self-reinforcing liquidity and volatility loops.

Waller’s plan hinges on rapid, smooth AI productivity gains. If that assumption slips, policymakers may be forced to reverse course — and the real damage won’t be prices, but credibility.

Key question:

Which assets break first when liquidity truly tightens?

$DOGE $QKC