Gold has recently seen a short-term pullback after rallying to fresh all-time highs, while Bitcoin continues to underperform during what is traditionally considered one of its strongest seasonal periods. This divergence has once again fueled comparisons between Bitcoin and precious metals.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness, multiple macro, statistical, and technical signals from the gold market are beginning to align. According to several analysts, these signals suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching a cyclical bottom and preparing for the next phase of its market cycle.
A 2020-Style Setup: Gold and Silver Lead, Bitcoin Follows
From a macro perspective, analysts note that gold and silver have historically peaked before Bitcoin begins its strongest rallies. This pattern was clearly observed during the 2020–2021 cycle and has recently resurfaced in analyst discussions on X.
Following the market shock in March 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve injected massive liquidity into the financial system. That capital initially flowed into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
During that period, gold surged from approximately $1,450 to $2,075 by August 2020, while silver rallied from around $12 to $29. Meanwhile, Bitcoin largely moved sideways between $9,000 and $12,000 for nearly five months, according to analysis from BullTheory.
“This consolidation phase followed a major liquidation event caused by the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020,” the analyst explained.
Once gold and silver topped in August 2020, capital began rotating toward higher-risk assets. Bitcoin subsequently rallied from $12,000 to $64,800 by May 2021 — a 5.5x increase — while the total crypto market capitalization expanded nearly eightfold.
Fast forward to today: gold has reached new record highs near $4,550, silver has surged to approximately $80, and Bitcoin has once again entered a prolonged sideways phase. BullTheory argues that this behavior closely resembles mid-2020 market dynamics.
“We recently experienced a large liquidation event on October 10, similar to March 2020. Once again, Bitcoin has been moving slowly for months afterward,” the analyst noted.
While Fed liquidity was the dominant catalyst in 2020, BullTheory points out that 2026 may feature even more tailwinds, including:
New liquidity injections and expectations of rate cuts
Potential SLR exemptions for banks
Clearer crypto regulations
The possibility of dividend-friendly policies under a Trump administration
Expansion of spot crypto ETFs
Improved access for large asset managers
A more crypto-friendly Federal Reserve leadership
“In the last cycle, Bitcoin’s growth was driven mainly by liquidity. This time, liquidity and market structure are converging simultaneously. The setup looks very similar — but with more fuel,” BullTheory concluded. “Gold and silver leading is not bearish for crypto. Historically, it has been an early signal.”
Statistical Decoupling Signals a Potential Shift
Another notable signal comes from Bitcoin’s changing correlation with gold and equities. Analyst PlanB observed that Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from its historical correlations with both asset classes.
This type of statistical separation has appeared before — most notably when Bitcoin traded below $1,000, prior to a major multi-year rally.
“This has happened before, when BTC was under $1,000, and it preceded a 10x move,” PlanB wrote.
However, the analyst also cautioned that markets evolve and correlations are not permanent, meaning historical patterns may not repeat perfectly.
The GOLD/BTC Ratio: A Technical Bottom Signal?
From a technical standpoint, the BTC-to-gold ratio is also flashing a potential bottom signal. Macro strategist Gert van Lagen highlighted that the RSI of this ratio is approaching a long-term descending trendline for the fifth time in history.
In previous cycles, similar setups coincided with major Bitcoin market bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each time, Bitcoin subsequently regained strength relative to gold and established higher structural lows.
If this pattern holds, current conditions could mark another important turning point.
Final Thoughts
Taken together, macro rotation patterns, statistical decoupling, and long-term technical signals suggest that Bitcoin’s current underperformance relative to gold may represent a transition phase rather than the start of a new bear market.
Historically, Bitcoin has tended to move after precious metals cool off — not alongside them. If these signals remain valid, Bitcoin’s current consolidation could be the calm before the next major shift in risk appetite.
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