Forget the Fed for a second.
The real macro bomb ticking in Tokyo is the Bank of Japan.
While everyone obsesses over Powell, the BOJ controls something far more dangerous - global liquidity itself.
Here's the setup: Japan's monetary policy doesn't just affect yen. It ripples through every risk asset on Earth. When the BOJ tightens, capital floods back to Japan. When they ease, it floods out and crypto is always first in line to catch that overflow.
The BOJ raised rates in July 2024. That sparked the global selloff that crushed Bitcoin from 73k to 53k. That wasn't random. That was carry trade unwinding on a massive scale.
Now watch what happens next. The BOJ meets again soon. If they signal another hike, you'll see the same pattern repeat.. risk-off, liquidity dries, Bitcoin gets flushed.
But here's what institutional money is already positioning for: if the BOJ pauses or hints at holding steady, the carry trade reverses. Capital floods back out of Japan. That's when the real move begins.
Retail is watching the Fed.
Smart money is watching Tokyo.
The macro wildcard isn't in Washington.
It's in the Bank of Japan's next decision.
