🚨 #China Treasury Exit and the Global Capital Rotation

China’s U.S. Treasury holdings have fallen to approximately $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008. At their peak in November 2013, they stood near $1.32 trillion. That represents a reduction of nearly half over the past decade, with roughly $115 billion reportedly trimmed between January and November 2025 alone an accelerated pace relative to prior years.

A significant portion appears to be rotating into gold. The People’s Bank of China has expanded its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with official holdings reported at 74.19 million ounces, valued near $370 billion at current prices. Some analysts suggest that when accounting for purchases potentially routed through SAFE and other channels, China’s effective gold exposure could be materially higher than disclosed figures. If those estimates are accurate.

This shift is not occurring in isolation. Several BRICS economies have also been diversifying portions of their reserves away from U.S. debt. While reserve diversification is not unusual in itself, the scale and persistence of this trend suggest a broader strategic adjustment rather than routine portfolio rebalancing.

#Gold sharp repricing above $5,500 earlier this year can be interpreted not merely as a commodity rally, but as a signal of shifting confidence in sovereign balance sheets and fiat reserve structures. When central banks accumulate hard assets while reducing exposure to foreign debt, it reflects a reassessment of counterparty risk, currency stability, and long-term geopolitical alignment.

Whether this process triggers short-term market instability is debatable. However, structurally, it indicates a gradual reconfiguration of global capital flows arguably the most significant since the post–Cold War financial order solidified in the 1990s.

Investors should view these developments not through the lens of panic, but through allocation strategy. When reserve managers move, they do so with long time horizons.