Date: 12-10-2024

Technical Analysis:

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The SUI/USDT pair has been experiencing significant volatility, as evidenced by various technical indicators such as Volume, Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), and Taker Buy/Sell Volume. Let’s break down the technical analysis for both short-term and long-term traders, along with key support and resistance levels, as well as bullish and bearish targets.

🔍 1. Price Overview: Key Observations

  • Current Price: $2.0144

  • Day’s Range: $1.79 - $2.0876

  • 7-Day Gain: +13.55%

  • 30-Day Gain: +116.48%

This sharp increase in the last 30 days indicates an ongoing bullish trend, but let's dive into the technical to gauge the sustainability of this rally.

🚀 2. Technical Indicators Breakdown

A. Volume Analysis 📈

  • Volume (SMA 9) is 36.829M, suggesting a steady increase in trading activity over recent periods.

  • Taker Buy/Sell Value: 18.57M (Buy) vs. 18.258M (Sell), showing a slightly bullish bias as buy-side interest marginally outweighs sell-side.

B. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) 🔄

  • CVD (Candles): A positive cumulative volume delta means that buying pressure is dominating, despite some recent fluctuations.

  • Aggregated Futures CVD: -1.524B, suggesting that in futures markets, the sell-side pressure is starting to mount, which could indicate a bearish divergence in the near future if this continues.

C. Taker Buy/Sell Volume 🛠️

  • Taker Buy Volume: 9.054M

  • Taker Sell Volume: 8.914M

  • The taker buy volume is slightly higher, but not significantly so. This shows uncertainty among market participants about the next move.

D. Spot Bid & Ask Delta 🟢🔴

  • Bid Delta: -46.718K, meaning the sell orders (ask) are dominating over buy orders (bids), a sign that we may see resistance forming soon.

🔮 3. Short-Term vs Long-Term Price Targets

Short-Term Support & Resistance Levels 🏗️

  • Immediate Support: $1.79 - This level is crucial as it's the bottom of the day's range and needs to hold to maintain the short-term bullish momentum.

  • Immediate Resistance: $2.0876 - This is the upper level of today’s range and will act as the first major resistance for price movement upwards.

If the price can break above the $2.09 level, we could see a short-term rally toward $2.30. However, if it breaks below $1.79, the next major support sits around $1.50, potentially setting up a retracement.

Long-Term Resistance Levels 📈

  • Major Resistance (Long-term): $2.50 - This is the key psychological level where many long-term holders may look to take profits.

  • Bearish Target: If the price fails to maintain its uptrend and breaks below $1.79, the bearish target could be as low as $1.20.

Bullish Potential 🚀

  • Bullish Target: If the price breaks above $2.50, the next major target could be $3.00, a level not seen in the recent market cycle.

📊 4. Indicator Specific Analysis

A. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 📐

RSI is likely hovering around 70, given the sharp recent run-up. This suggests that the market is approaching overbought territory, meaning a short-term pullback could occur before continuing the upward trend.

  • RSI Prediction: Expect the price to potentially correct down to support at $1.79 before bouncing back.

B. Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 50) 📏

  • SMA 9: The price is well above the 9-period SMA, a signal of strong upward momentum.

  • 50-Day Moving Average: The 50-day MA sits much lower than the current price, suggesting that long-term holders are still in profit. This gap between the shorter and longer moving averages indicates that the asset is in a strong uptrend, but correction is due.

C. ADX (Average Directional Index) 🔺

  • ADX Prediction: Given the current trend strength, the ADX is likely above 25, signalling that the uptrend is strong. If the ADX starts to dip below 25, it could indicate momentum is fading, leading to a sideways market.

🔎 5. Accumulation/Distribution & Market Sentiment

The accumulation/distribution indicator suggests that smart money has been accumulating over the last few months, contributing to the strong uptrend. However, the aggregated futures data shows increasing short positions, meaning we could see a correction before a continuation of the uptrend.

🌐 6. Macro-Economic Factors: How Recent Events Impact SUI

A. Interest Rate Hikes 💹

With central banks globally tightening their monetary policy, capital has shifted toward less risky assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, altcoins like SUI have been undervalued, leading to accumulation before the next big move.

B. Inflation 📈

As inflation remains high, investors seek hedges in cryptocurrency, and lower-tier assets like SUI are benefiting from this macroeconomic factor. This bullish macro environment has boosted the price in the past month.

C. Regulatory News 📰

Recent crypto regulation news has been less aggressive, allowing more speculative investments to flow into assets like SUI. The market is currently in a risk-on phase, which could continue as long as regulatory sentiment remains neutral.

🛠️ 7. Final Advanced Predictions: What’s Next for SUI?

  • Short-Term: Expect the price to retest $1.79 before attempting another move upwards. A break above $2.09 could send it towards $2.30.

  • Long-Term: If the bullish trend continues, breaking above $2.50 could lead to a strong rally towards $3.00. On the flip side, failing to hold $1.79 may push the price down to $1.50 or lower.

Pro Tip:

  • Watch for bearish divergences in RSI or MACD in combination with a Bollinger Band Squeeze. These often signal potential market reversals or breakouts.

Conclusion: Navigating SUI’s Bull Run with Caution 🧭

SUI has shown tremendous potential in recent weeks, but volatility remains high. With the current market sentiment favouring risk-on assets, this could continue to rise. However, smart traders will keep an eye on key support and resistance levels, using a combination of RSI, volume analysis, and macro-economic factors to gauge the next big move.


Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and may lead to substantial financial loss. Always perform your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the publisher or its affiliates. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves inherent risks, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please exercise caution.