halving

As you know Bitcoin closed 2025 with an unexpected result. Despite reaching new highs during the year, the world’s largest cryptocurrency ended the year down roughly 6%, finishing near $88,000 after starting around $93,500. This marked the first time in Bitcoin’s history that a post-halving year delivered negative returns, breaking a pattern that investors had relied on for more than a decade.
For years, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has acted as a roadmap for market expectations. Each halving event reduces the reward miners receive, limiting new supply and historically igniting powerful bull markets. Previous post-halving years produced dramatic gains, reinforcing the belief that reduced supply alone could drive prices higher. The April 2024 halving initially followed this familiar path, pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high near $126,000 by October 2025.

However, the rally lost momentum. After hitting its peak, Bitcoin entered a prolonged consolidation phase. Prices gradually cooled as profit-taking increased and buying pressure faded. By year’s end, the market had given back a portion of its gains, leaving Bitcoin in negative territory despite its historic highs earlier in the cycle.
Several structural changes help explain why this cycle unfolded differently. One major factor was the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024. These products attracted significant capital before and shortly after the halving, effectively pulling future demand forward. As a result, much of the upside typically seen after a halving may have already been realized earlier in the cycle.
The composition of the market has also changed. Institutional investors now account for the majority of trading activity, reducing the influence of retail speculation that once fueled extreme price swings. With more disciplined capital in control, volatility has softened and price movements have become more measured.
Bitcoin’s growing integration into global financial markets has further altered its behavior. The asset is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, liquidity trends, and broader risk sentiment. This has weakened the halving’s impact as a standalone catalyst, tying Bitcoin’s performance more closely to traditional markets.

Some industry leaders argue that the classic four-year cycle has evolved rather than disappeared. With most Bitcoin already mined and annual supply growth now minimal, each halving delivers a smaller supply shock than in the past.
While 2025 broke historical expectations, many see the year as a period of healthy consolidation. Rather than signaling weakness, it may reflect Bitcoin’s transition into a more mature, institutionally driven asset one that still values scarcity, even as old patterns begin to fade.
#Halving #Bitcoin

$TAO consolidates at $220 as Grayscale and Bitwise file for Spot ETFs, validating the "AI Coin of the Cycle" thesis.
What's Happening:
TAO trades at $220, digesting its recent post-halving moves.ETF News: Grayscale filed for a TAO ETF, signaling massive institutional demand for decentralized AI exposure.The first halving (Dec 14) cut emissions by 50%, creating a supply shock that is slowly playing out.Binance is trimming margin pairs (TAO/FDUSD), likely for liquidity consolidation, causing minor short-term friction.
Why It Matters:
TAO is the Bitcoin of AI. The combination of a Halving (Supply Shock) + ETF Filings (Demand Shock) creates a textbook bullish setup for 2026. Institutions are positioning before the crowd understands the scarcity.
Technical View:
TAO is compressing in a flag pattern. Resistance at $250 is the breakout level. Support at $200 is psychological and structural.
🎯 Key Levels:
Support: $200.00 | Resistance: $250.0024h Range: $218 - $225
💡 " Decentralized AI is the trend; TAO is the index."
What's your take? Drop a 🔥 for bullish, ❄️ for bearish 👇
#Bittensor #TAO #CryptoAI #GrayscaleETF #Halving
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.