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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
marchealo:
❤️❤️❤️
Hubo un tiempo en que Pablo no soñaba con viajar ni con lujos.
Soñaba con comer.
Trabajaba en McDonald’s, jornadas largas, manos agrietadas, sonrisa forzada. Ganaba 10 dólares al día y aun así había noches en las que el estómago le dolía más que el cansancio. A veces se llevaba a casa una hamburguesa fría, no porque quisiera, sino porque era lo único que había.
Cuando cerraba los ojos, no pedía riquezas.
Pedía que el día siguiente fuera un poco menos duro.
Muchos lo miraban sin verlo. Nadie imaginaba que ese chico, con uniforme barato y mirada cansada, llevaba dentro una fuerza que ni él mismo conocía.
Un día escuchó hablar de Bitcoin (BTC) . No como un atajo, no como magia. Como una esperanza pequeña, casi ridícula. Pablo empezó con miedo. Con monedas sueltas. Con sacrificios silenciosos. Hubo días en los que dudó, en los que pensó que estaba perdiendo lo poco que tenía.
Pero no se rindió.
Pasaron los años. Y un día, Pablo se encontró de pie en Londres.
Lloró frente al Big Ben. Lloró como nunca antes. No por la ciudad, sino por el camino. Por el hambre, por el cansancio, por todas las veces que nadie apostó por él.
Cuando se sentó en su Rolls-Royce, no sonrió por el lujo.
Cerró los ojos y recordó al Pablo que limpiaba mesas, al Pablo que contaba monedas, al Pablo que aguantó cuando rendirse parecía lo más lógico.
Bitcoin no le cambió la vida por sí solo.
Pablo lo hizo. Con paciencia, con dolor, con fe cuando no había nada más.
Hoy, cada vez que pasa frente a un McDonald’s, baja la mirada un segundo…
y agradece no haberse soltado de sí mismo cuando el mundo ya lo había hecho.
Todo gracias a BTC 🤑💸💸 #btc $BTC
Soñaba con comer.
Trabajaba en McDonald’s, jornadas largas, manos agrietadas, sonrisa forzada. Ganaba 10 dólares al día y aun así había noches en las que el estómago le dolía más que el cansancio. A veces se llevaba a casa una hamburguesa fría, no porque quisiera, sino porque era lo único que había.
Cuando cerraba los ojos, no pedía riquezas.
Pedía que el día siguiente fuera un poco menos duro.
Muchos lo miraban sin verlo. Nadie imaginaba que ese chico, con uniforme barato y mirada cansada, llevaba dentro una fuerza que ni él mismo conocía.
Un día escuchó hablar de Bitcoin (BTC) . No como un atajo, no como magia. Como una esperanza pequeña, casi ridícula. Pablo empezó con miedo. Con monedas sueltas. Con sacrificios silenciosos. Hubo días en los que dudó, en los que pensó que estaba perdiendo lo poco que tenía.
Pero no se rindió.
Pasaron los años. Y un día, Pablo se encontró de pie en Londres.
Lloró frente al Big Ben. Lloró como nunca antes. No por la ciudad, sino por el camino. Por el hambre, por el cansancio, por todas las veces que nadie apostó por él.
Cuando se sentó en su Rolls-Royce, no sonrió por el lujo.
Cerró los ojos y recordó al Pablo que limpiaba mesas, al Pablo que contaba monedas, al Pablo que aguantó cuando rendirse parecía lo más lógico.
Bitcoin no le cambió la vida por sí solo.
Pablo lo hizo. Con paciencia, con dolor, con fe cuando no había nada más.
Hoy, cada vez que pasa frente a un McDonald’s, baja la mirada un segundo…
y agradece no haberse soltado de sí mismo cuando el mundo ya lo había hecho.
Todo gracias a BTC 🤑💸💸 #btc $BTC
emiz55:
Padre bobo es mejor
🚨 ALERTA IMPORTANTE – BITCOIN (02/02/2026 EM DIANTE) 🚨
O Bitcoin entrou oficialmente em uma fase crítica do ciclo.
📉 O preço perdeu médias importantes, está dentro de um canal de baixa e trabalha agora sobre uma zona decisiva entre 76k e 78k.
🧠 Historicamente, 2026 NÃO é ano de euforia, mas sim de:
✔️ Correções
✔️ Lateralizações longas
✔️ Teste psicológico dos investidores
💥 Quem compra topo sente dor.
🧊 Quem entende ciclos constrói patrimônio.
🔎 Zonas-chave para observar:
Resistência: 83k / 99k
Suporte forte: 68k / 58k
⚠️ Se perder 76k, o mercado pode buscar regiões mais baixas antes de qualquer nova alta sustentável.
📊 Não é hora de emoção. É hora de estratégia.
📚 Estude, gerencie risco e pense como institucional.
💬 Quem entende o ciclo, não entra em pânico.
$BTC BTC #btc #btc #BitcoinETFWatch
O Bitcoin entrou oficialmente em uma fase crítica do ciclo.
📉 O preço perdeu médias importantes, está dentro de um canal de baixa e trabalha agora sobre uma zona decisiva entre 76k e 78k.
🧠 Historicamente, 2026 NÃO é ano de euforia, mas sim de:
✔️ Correções
✔️ Lateralizações longas
✔️ Teste psicológico dos investidores
💥 Quem compra topo sente dor.
🧊 Quem entende ciclos constrói patrimônio.
🔎 Zonas-chave para observar:
Resistência: 83k / 99k
Suporte forte: 68k / 58k
⚠️ Se perder 76k, o mercado pode buscar regiões mais baixas antes de qualquer nova alta sustentável.
📊 Não é hora de emoção. É hora de estratégia.
📚 Estude, gerencie risco e pense como institucional.
💬 Quem entende o ciclo, não entra em pânico.
$BTC BTC #btc #btc #BitcoinETFWatch
Dorsey Ratkowski Z8S1:
Some desse mercaod na vale nada so engana tonto
🚨BTC Detailed Price Action Analysis
BTC is currently attempting a short-term relief bounce from the $74.7k demand zone, which is acting as temporary support after the recent impulsive sell-off. While this bounce may look encouraging on lower timeframes, it is important not to confuse a relief rally with a trend reversal.
From a market structure perspective, BTC remains bearish:
• Price is still trading below key resistance levels
• Lower highs and lower lows are intact
• The move up looks corrective rather than impulsive
For BTC to shift back into a short-term bullish scenario, we need a strong daily close above the $84k level. This level aligns with:
• Prior support turned resistance
• A key breakdown zone
• Likely supply from trapped longs
Until BTC reclaims and holds above $84k, any upside movement should be treated as a pullback within a broader bearish trend.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Resistance: $80k–$82k (bearish retest zone), then $84k
• Support: $74.7k initially
• Below $74.7k: Opens the door for further downside continuation toward lower liquidity zones
Expected Scenario:
BTC may:
1. Continue the current bounce
2. Face rejection around $80k–$82k
3. Form a bearish retest
4. Resume downside momentum if sellers step back in
Unless bulls show strong acceptance above $84k, the market remains vulnerable to further distribution and downside expansion.
⚠️ Caution: Volatility remains high, and liquidity-driven moves can cause sharp wicks on both sides. Risk management is key in this environment.
#GoldSilverRebound #StrategyBTCPurchase #btc #MarketSentimentToday #bitcoin
$BTC
$SOL
$ETH
BTC is currently attempting a short-term relief bounce from the $74.7k demand zone, which is acting as temporary support after the recent impulsive sell-off. While this bounce may look encouraging on lower timeframes, it is important not to confuse a relief rally with a trend reversal.
From a market structure perspective, BTC remains bearish:
• Price is still trading below key resistance levels
• Lower highs and lower lows are intact
• The move up looks corrective rather than impulsive
For BTC to shift back into a short-term bullish scenario, we need a strong daily close above the $84k level. This level aligns with:
• Prior support turned resistance
• A key breakdown zone
• Likely supply from trapped longs
Until BTC reclaims and holds above $84k, any upside movement should be treated as a pullback within a broader bearish trend.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Resistance: $80k–$82k (bearish retest zone), then $84k
• Support: $74.7k initially
• Below $74.7k: Opens the door for further downside continuation toward lower liquidity zones
Expected Scenario:
BTC may:
1. Continue the current bounce
2. Face rejection around $80k–$82k
3. Form a bearish retest
4. Resume downside momentum if sellers step back in
Unless bulls show strong acceptance above $84k, the market remains vulnerable to further distribution and downside expansion.
⚠️ Caution: Volatility remains high, and liquidity-driven moves can cause sharp wicks on both sides. Risk management is key in this environment.
#GoldSilverRebound #StrategyBTCPurchase #btc #MarketSentimentToday #bitcoin
$BTC
$SOL
$ETH
«Все ждут выстрел. А рынок пока дышит».
Меня часто спрашивают друзья про биткоин: ты же говорил, что в 2026 будет рост?
Да, я считаю, что рост будет — но не прямо сейчас.
Пока BTC, по моему мнению, будет двигаться во флэте 60 000–90 000. И да, в этом диапазоне тоже можно отлично зарабатывать, если понимать структуру рынка.
Ближе к сентябрю–октябрю ожидаю резкое движение вверх. Не падение — именно импульсный рост.
Оттуда цель — 150 000.
$BTC #btc
Меня часто спрашивают друзья про биткоин: ты же говорил, что в 2026 будет рост?
Да, я считаю, что рост будет — но не прямо сейчас.
Пока BTC, по моему мнению, будет двигаться во флэте 60 000–90 000. И да, в этом диапазоне тоже можно отлично зарабатывать, если понимать структуру рынка.
Ближе к сентябрю–октябрю ожидаю резкое движение вверх. Не падение — именно импульсный рост.
Оттуда цель — 150 000.
$BTC #btc
📉 Bitcoin's Market Bottom: On-chain data shows We're not there yet!
Previous cycles prove $BTC price bottom only happens when:
✅ Short-Term Holders (STH) are in loss (this has already happened)
⏳ Long-Term Holders (LTH) start carrying losses (this has not happened yet — this is when the real bottom forms) !
Additionally:
🔴 The bear market only ends when the STH Realized Price falls below the LTH Realized Price
🟢 The bull market begins when the STH Realized Price moves back above the LTH Realized Price
Both of them have not happened yet!
From previous cycles, this crossover has always signaled the shift. Right now, STH is declining but hasn't crossed below LTH yet – meaning more pain could be ahead. As crypto matures, drawdowns are getting milder, but the bottom might land around $BTC $65K-$70K based on old patterns.
Blue line: STH Realized Price
Orange line: LTH Realized Price
Red dots: End of bear market
Green dots: Start of bull market.
Share your predictions in the comments #btc #bitcoin
Previous cycles prove $BTC price bottom only happens when:
✅ Short-Term Holders (STH) are in loss (this has already happened)
⏳ Long-Term Holders (LTH) start carrying losses (this has not happened yet — this is when the real bottom forms) !
Additionally:
🔴 The bear market only ends when the STH Realized Price falls below the LTH Realized Price
🟢 The bull market begins when the STH Realized Price moves back above the LTH Realized Price
Both of them have not happened yet!
From previous cycles, this crossover has always signaled the shift. Right now, STH is declining but hasn't crossed below LTH yet – meaning more pain could be ahead. As crypto matures, drawdowns are getting milder, but the bottom might land around $BTC $65K-$70K based on old patterns.
Blue line: STH Realized Price
Orange line: LTH Realized Price
Red dots: End of bear market
Green dots: Start of bull market.
Share your predictions in the comments #btc #bitcoin
BTC UPDATE ( Weekly)
There are no major changes from the previous analysis. However, I’ll briefly repeat the entire BTC plan once again.
BTC is currently sitting in the weekly swing low zone, right around Saylor’s average buy level near 76k. A move below this area is likely to increase fear and tension across the Crypto market and could push Saylor’s holdings into negative returns.
👉 At the moment, BTC is holding the weekly timeframe support zone. If we see a sweep below 74k, a reaction from this area could send price back for a retest of the 82–84k range. After that, the next leg is expected to continue lower.
In summary, based on market structure, the final bottom has not yet formed. The 71–74k sweep should be viewed only as a local bottom
🍸The chart below clearly highlights similar structural scenarios that played out in the past.
#StrategyBTCPurchase #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #btc #MarketCorrection #USGovShutdown
$BTC
$SOL
$ETH
There are no major changes from the previous analysis. However, I’ll briefly repeat the entire BTC plan once again.
BTC is currently sitting in the weekly swing low zone, right around Saylor’s average buy level near 76k. A move below this area is likely to increase fear and tension across the Crypto market and could push Saylor’s holdings into negative returns.
👉 At the moment, BTC is holding the weekly timeframe support zone. If we see a sweep below 74k, a reaction from this area could send price back for a retest of the 82–84k range. After that, the next leg is expected to continue lower.
In summary, based on market structure, the final bottom has not yet formed. The 71–74k sweep should be viewed only as a local bottom
🍸The chart below clearly highlights similar structural scenarios that played out in the past.
#StrategyBTCPurchase #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #btc #MarketCorrection #USGovShutdown
$BTC
$SOL
$ETH
THAER RIYAH:
ان شاء الله نزول بعد الى 54الف
🚨 Bitcoin's already dipped about 37% from its peak price.
But hold up, that's not screaming "market bottom" just yet, based on what this chart's showing.
Looking back at the big cycles, $BTC always took way bigger hits before the downtrend wrapped up.
📉 Check out these past drops:
Back in 2011: -93%
2013 to 2015: -85%
2017-2018: -84%
And 2021-2022: -75%
📌 From what history tells us, a 37% slide is basically just the opening act of the pullback.
The good news? As crypto grows up, these crashes seem to get a bit milder over time—
though they'll probably stick around in some form.
Based on the stats, the sweet spot for this cycle's low might land somewhere around:
➡️ -60% to -70%
What's your take on this round? Drop your predictions in the comments! #btc #bitcoin
But hold up, that's not screaming "market bottom" just yet, based on what this chart's showing.
Looking back at the big cycles, $BTC always took way bigger hits before the downtrend wrapped up.
📉 Check out these past drops:
Back in 2011: -93%
2013 to 2015: -85%
2017-2018: -84%
And 2021-2022: -75%
📌 From what history tells us, a 37% slide is basically just the opening act of the pullback.
The good news? As crypto grows up, these crashes seem to get a bit milder over time—
though they'll probably stick around in some form.
Based on the stats, the sweet spot for this cycle's low might land somewhere around:
➡️ -60% to -70%
What's your take on this round? Drop your predictions in the comments! #btc #bitcoin
Jay Mohakal:
hii
从数据上看Hype杠杆清算量是币安的6倍，Bybit的两倍，虽然币安有数据黑箱，没有完全公开数据，但大概在Bybit的2～3倍左右，相当于和Hype持平。
两大头部“老登”吵架，除了对行情能造成短暂影响，甚至爆掉对整个行业都不会产生本质影响，没什么值得围观。他们的竞争对手并不是CEX本身，低级赌狗玩杠杆合约，但市场份额倍Hype迅速甩开，尤其10月过后，许多做市商将流动性从CEX迁移到链上。高级赌狗，都去了预测市场，以体现自己的推理能力“IQ”。
当做市商离开，CEX 剩下的就只有，情绪、杠杆、老用户看老登门吵架，就像王朝末期一样无趣，话语权还在、资源还在、但结构已经空了😑
可以说三大华语CEX在本轮行情里的骚操作，亲手葬送自己的前途，而10月事件不是转折点，只是让市场提前看清，“旧王未死，新王已立”。
等流动性再次回归Base成为对接机构资金的第一现货CEX，Hype和预测市场继续蚕食“赌徒”。
$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo
两大头部“老登”吵架，除了对行情能造成短暂影响，甚至爆掉对整个行业都不会产生本质影响，没什么值得围观。他们的竞争对手并不是CEX本身，低级赌狗玩杠杆合约，但市场份额倍Hype迅速甩开，尤其10月过后，许多做市商将流动性从CEX迁移到链上。高级赌狗，都去了预测市场，以体现自己的推理能力“IQ”。
当做市商离开，CEX 剩下的就只有，情绪、杠杆、老用户看老登门吵架，就像王朝末期一样无趣，话语权还在、资源还在、但结构已经空了😑
可以说三大华语CEX在本轮行情里的骚操作，亲手葬送自己的前途，而10月事件不是转折点，只是让市场提前看清，“旧王未死，新王已立”。
等流动性再次回归Base成为对接机构资金的第一现货CEX，Hype和预测市场继续蚕食“赌徒”。
$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo
黑天鹅z:
hype什么位置会清算
$BTC trade idea
position short
entry = 78,657
sl = 79,442
tp1= 77,758
tp2 = 77,080
tp3 = 76,285
tp4 = 75,404
🚨Manage ur risk
On tp1 done partial and BE must
#btc #tradeidea
$BTC
position short
entry = 78,657
sl = 79,442
tp1= 77,758
tp2 = 77,080
tp3 = 76,285
tp4 = 75,404
🚨Manage ur risk
On tp1 done partial and BE must
#btc #tradeidea
$BTC
Había una vez un señor vagabundito de dibujos animados que tenía solo 5 dolaritos en el bolsillo 🪙
Estaba triste y dijo:
—Con esto solo me alcanza para un pan imaginario 🥖😢
De pronto apareció Bitcoin, vestido como superhéroe 🦸♂️💛, y dijo:
—¡Tranquilo! ¡En el mundo de los dibujos todo puede pasar!
El señor puso sus 5 dólares en Bitcoin y… ¡PUM! 💥✨El BTC all the way to the moon $BTC
En el siguiente episodio del cartoon ya tenía castillos, piscinas de chocolate y tantos ceros que no cabían en la pantalla 🏰🍫
Entonces alguien gritó:
—¡Es tan rico que tiene más monedas que el tío del Monopoly… y más fortuna que Trump en los dibujos! 😆
Bitcoin guiñó un ojo y dijo:
—Recuerden, niños: esto es solo un cuento divertido… ¡pero aprender de dinero sí es cosa seria! 📚😊
Y todos se fueron a comer helado digital 🍦🎮
#btc
Estaba triste y dijo:
—Con esto solo me alcanza para un pan imaginario 🥖😢
De pronto apareció Bitcoin, vestido como superhéroe 🦸♂️💛, y dijo:
—¡Tranquilo! ¡En el mundo de los dibujos todo puede pasar!
El señor puso sus 5 dólares en Bitcoin y… ¡PUM! 💥✨El BTC all the way to the moon $BTC
En el siguiente episodio del cartoon ya tenía castillos, piscinas de chocolate y tantos ceros que no cabían en la pantalla 🏰🍫
Entonces alguien gritó:
—¡Es tan rico que tiene más monedas que el tío del Monopoly… y más fortuna que Trump en los dibujos! 😆
Bitcoin guiñó un ojo y dijo:
—Recuerden, niños: esto es solo un cuento divertido… ¡pero aprender de dinero sí es cosa seria! 📚😊
Y todos se fueron a comer helado digital 🍦🎮
#btc
BTC $76K: Don't Panic, It's in Buying Opportunity Zone
Ever wondered about tools that help determine the best time to buy Bitcoin? Well, the Bitcoin Valuation Indicator is one of those built straight into the Binance Official app.
The score lands $BTC in one of three buckets depending on what you get:
- Opportunity Zone (below 0.45): Bitcoin looks seriously underpriced compared to past trends – time to consider diving in.
- DCA Zone (from 0.45 to 1.2): Things seem balanced, so steady buying makes sense.
- Risk Zone (above 1.2): Could be getting too pricey, so maybe pump the brakes on fresh buys.
🔥Figuring Out When to Buy Bitcoin Using AHR999
Looking at the latest info from today February 2, 2026, the AHR999 is sitting at 0.4. Bitcoin's at around $76K-$78K, and the 200-day average cost is $103,353. That's smack in the Opportunity Zone (below 0.45), which tells us Bitcoin is undervalued big time right now – the kind of rare chance that doesn't come around often.
🔥Why Now Feels Like a Smart Time to Buy
- Looking back at history: I've checked stuff on places like CoinGlass and TradingView, and whenever this score drops under 0.45, it's often right at the bottom of those rough market phases, think 2018, 2022, or the end of 2025. From what we've seen before, snapping up some at these levels usually pays off down the road, as prices snap back to that ongoing growth path (we're talking roughly 200% yearly bump in the model's view). Back in past upswings, spots like this sparked massive price jumps, sometimes multiplying what you put in.
- Right now, the price is way down from the recent average people paid ($76K-$78K compared to $103,353), so it feels like a quick drop – could be from news on the economy, new regs, or global stuff happening. Great spot to pick up some on the cheap.
- The whole idea is to make it simple to check if Bitcoin's a steal at its current price, without diving into a ton of technical mumbo-jumbo. It really just focuses on a pair of straightforward checks:
- Is the price a bargain short-term? It lines up today's Bitcoin price with the average from the past 200 days.
- Is it cheap over the long run? This part compares the price to Bitcoin's big-picture growth trend from way back, sort of like figuring out its real core worth.
📝 How This AHR999 Thing Actually Works
AHR999 = (Bitcoin's price right now divided by the 200-day DCA figure) times (that same current price divided by a number based on how long Bitcoin's been around).
- What's the 200-day DCA figure? Imagine you picked up a tiny bit of Bitcoin each day for the last 200 days – this is roughly what that would add up to in costs. Pretty much an average of those old prices.
- And the "coin age" number? It comes from a simple model that looks at Bitcoin's prices since it kicked off in 2009. Basically, it uses something like this to estimate a fair price over time: 10 to the power of (5.84 multiplied by the log base 10 of the days since start, minus 17.01).
Sure, the indicator is screaming "buy," especially if you're going all in or adding more to your stack, but crypto can swing wildly. Prices might drop even more short-term because of surprise news or big economic shakes. Don't put in money you can't lose, and spread out your investments.
#btc #bitcoin #MarketPullback #WhenWillBTCRebound
The score lands $BTC in one of three buckets depending on what you get:
- Opportunity Zone (below 0.45): Bitcoin looks seriously underpriced compared to past trends – time to consider diving in.
- DCA Zone (from 0.45 to 1.2): Things seem balanced, so steady buying makes sense.
- Risk Zone (above 1.2): Could be getting too pricey, so maybe pump the brakes on fresh buys.
🔥Figuring Out When to Buy Bitcoin Using AHR999
Looking at the latest info from today February 2, 2026, the AHR999 is sitting at 0.4. Bitcoin's at around $76K-$78K, and the 200-day average cost is $103,353. That's smack in the Opportunity Zone (below 0.45), which tells us Bitcoin is undervalued big time right now – the kind of rare chance that doesn't come around often.
🔥Why Now Feels Like a Smart Time to Buy
- Looking back at history: I've checked stuff on places like CoinGlass and TradingView, and whenever this score drops under 0.45, it's often right at the bottom of those rough market phases, think 2018, 2022, or the end of 2025. From what we've seen before, snapping up some at these levels usually pays off down the road, as prices snap back to that ongoing growth path (we're talking roughly 200% yearly bump in the model's view). Back in past upswings, spots like this sparked massive price jumps, sometimes multiplying what you put in.
- Right now, the price is way down from the recent average people paid ($76K-$78K compared to $103,353), so it feels like a quick drop – could be from news on the economy, new regs, or global stuff happening. Great spot to pick up some on the cheap.
- The whole idea is to make it simple to check if Bitcoin's a steal at its current price, without diving into a ton of technical mumbo-jumbo. It really just focuses on a pair of straightforward checks:
- Is the price a bargain short-term? It lines up today's Bitcoin price with the average from the past 200 days.
- Is it cheap over the long run? This part compares the price to Bitcoin's big-picture growth trend from way back, sort of like figuring out its real core worth.
📝 How This AHR999 Thing Actually Works
AHR999 = (Bitcoin's price right now divided by the 200-day DCA figure) times (that same current price divided by a number based on how long Bitcoin's been around).
- What's the 200-day DCA figure? Imagine you picked up a tiny bit of Bitcoin each day for the last 200 days – this is roughly what that would add up to in costs. Pretty much an average of those old prices.
- And the "coin age" number? It comes from a simple model that looks at Bitcoin's prices since it kicked off in 2009. Basically, it uses something like this to estimate a fair price over time: 10 to the power of (5.84 multiplied by the log base 10 of the days since start, minus 17.01).
Sure, the indicator is screaming "buy," especially if you're going all in or adding more to your stack, but crypto can swing wildly. Prices might drop even more short-term because of surprise news or big economic shakes. Don't put in money you can't lose, and spread out your investments.
#btc #bitcoin #MarketPullback #WhenWillBTCRebound
Fualnguyen:
Many people can’t control their fear
and end up selling instead of buying.
Honest question for the market 👀
What’s really preventing $BTC from sliding back to $50K?
Zoom out for a second — over the last 90 days, Bitcoin already pulled back around 35%. That wasn’t some tiny dip, it was a real shakeout.
From current levels, a move to $50K would mean roughly a 25% downside. In crypto terms… that’s not exactly unthinkable 😬
Sentiment flips fast, liquidity dries up quicker, and price doesn’t need permission to revisit old levels.
Not saying it will happen — just asking whether the market is truly protected here… or just hoping.
What’s your take? 📉📈
#Binance #BinanceSquare #btc
What’s really preventing $BTC from sliding back to $50K?
Zoom out for a second — over the last 90 days, Bitcoin already pulled back around 35%. That wasn’t some tiny dip, it was a real shakeout.
From current levels, a move to $50K would mean roughly a 25% downside. In crypto terms… that’s not exactly unthinkable 😬
Sentiment flips fast, liquidity dries up quicker, and price doesn’t need permission to revisit old levels.
Not saying it will happen — just asking whether the market is truly protected here… or just hoping.
What’s your take? 📉📈
#Binance #BinanceSquare #btc
$BTC Just Broke Key Support — What’s Next? Next?
$BTC is trading near ~$76,800 today after a sharp selloff and large liquidations hit the market.
📉 If BTC stays below $77,500 support:
→ Pressure may push price toward $75,000
📈 If BTC recovers above $78,000:
→ Potential bounce to $80,000–$82,000
Volume and broader risk sentiment will dictate the next move.
⚠️ Crypto is volatile — manage risk and size positions wisely.
Not financial advice.
#btc #BinanceSquareFamily
$BTC is trading near ~$76,800 today after a sharp selloff and large liquidations hit the market.
📉 If BTC stays below $77,500 support:
→ Pressure may push price toward $75,000
📈 If BTC recovers above $78,000:
→ Potential bounce to $80,000–$82,000
Volume and broader risk sentiment will dictate the next move.
⚠️ Crypto is volatile — manage risk and size positions wisely.
Not financial advice.
#btc #BinanceSquareFamily
1月31日的凌晨到2月1日的凌晨，大饼以太，四小时kdj，rsi双金叉，第一轮杀技术面，大饼从85000跌到75800，泄万点，以太2700一带跌到2200一带，泄五千点，这已经足够将大量的多头给扫了出去。插针完的反弹都还不错，大饼弹四千点，以太弹两百点。反弹的强势让一些人试图抄底，二月1号的下午四点，大饼双指标四小时潜在金叉，这里开始被技术性打压，开始阴跌。在周一早间，随金银的跌再探一轮，大饼最低下探74500一带，以太则2150一带。这里离第一轮插针相隔不大，但是足够过程里抄底的投机者全部清理出局了。
只有市场足够恐慌，主力才有兴趣介入。我相信这个位置就很好，很容易走成周期拐点。#btc
只有市场足够恐慌，主力才有兴趣介入。我相信这个位置就很好，很容易走成周期拐点。#btc
从博弈的角度上来讲，今晚反弹胜算极大。没有别的原因，该被扫的不该被扫的都被扫了，从这里春节应该会是以反弹带动上涨的新一轮趋势#btc
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