Washington is bracing for a potential "Valentine’s Day" shutdown. While most of the government is funded through September 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is on a thin two-week lifeline that expires this Friday, February 13.
Why is this happening?
The standoff centers on a clash over President Trump’s immigration enforcement policies. Following a brief four-day shutdown earlier this month, a temporary patch was signed—but only for 14 days.
Democrats are demanding significant reforms for ICE and CBP, including:
Body Cameras: Mandatory use for all federal agents. Warrants: Requiring judicial warrants for home entries. Identification: No more masks; agents must display names and ID numbers.
The Odds
Prediction markets are reflecting high levels of uncertainty:
Polymarket: 74% chance of shutdown. Kalshi: 65% chance of shutdown.
What happens if it shuts down?
This would be a partial shutdown specifically targeting DHS. While "essential" law enforcement (like border security and airport TSA) will likely continue working without immediate pay, other programs like E-Verify could be suspended, causing headaches for businesses and the tech sector.
The Bottom Line
With Friday at midnight as the deadline, the political brinkmanship is reaching a fever pitch. If a breakthrough doesn't happen in the next 72 hours, the DHS will go dark starting Saturday morning.
What do you think? Should immigration enforcement be the hill Congress chooses to die on, or is it time for a long-term deal?
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