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🚨 BREAKING: FED ADMITS KALSHI FORECASTS BEAT PROFESSIONAL ECONOMISTS 🧠📊
A new study from the U.S. Federal Reserve has publicly acknowledged that Kalshi’s real-time probability forecasting platform has outperformed:
✔ Fed Funds Futures
✔ Professional economist surveys
— in predicting Federal Funds Rate outcomes and inflation (CPI) on the day of every FOMC meeting since 2022.
Instead of a single point estimate, Kalshi’s forecast shows a full probability distribution, giving markets a richer, continuously updated view of expectations than traditional tools.
This admission marks a major milestone in how markets forecast and price macro outcomes.
⸻
🧠 Why This Matters to Markets
📊 1) Better Signals = Better Positioning
Kalshi’s probabilistic model provides:
✔ Distribution of outcomes
✔ Real-time shifts based on live trading
✔ More accurate signals than surveys
This empowers traders to interpret macro expectation changes before they show up in futures or policy.
⸻
📉 2) Markets Price Expectations — Not Opinions
Traditional economist forecasts are static and slow.
Kalshi moves with market beliefs, detecting shifts faster.
That means:
• Rate odds adjust quicker
• Volatility pricing is sharper
• Macro-dependent assets adjust faster
This is a paradigm shift in macro forecasting.
⸻
🔄 3) Traders Can Use This Info
Instead of reacting to Fed statements after the fact, traders can now monitor Kalshi probability changes to tailor:
• Interest rate trades
• Bond curve positioning
• FX strategies
• Inflation hedges
• Macro-sensitive equities & crypto
This creates a leading edge.
⸻
📣 The Fed now admits Kalshi’s probability forecasts beat economist surveys and Fed Funds futures. 🧠
Real-time macro signals for traders: welcome to the future. 🔥
#Kalshi #Fed #MacroForecast #FOMC #TradingInsights $XAU
A new study from the U.S. Federal Reserve has publicly acknowledged that Kalshi’s real-time probability forecasting platform has outperformed:
✔ Fed Funds Futures
✔ Professional economist surveys
— in predicting Federal Funds Rate outcomes and inflation (CPI) on the day of every FOMC meeting since 2022.
Instead of a single point estimate, Kalshi’s forecast shows a full probability distribution, giving markets a richer, continuously updated view of expectations than traditional tools.
This admission marks a major milestone in how markets forecast and price macro outcomes.
⸻
🧠 Why This Matters to Markets
📊 1) Better Signals = Better Positioning
Kalshi’s probabilistic model provides:
✔ Distribution of outcomes
✔ Real-time shifts based on live trading
✔ More accurate signals than surveys
This empowers traders to interpret macro expectation changes before they show up in futures or policy.
⸻
📉 2) Markets Price Expectations — Not Opinions
Traditional economist forecasts are static and slow.
Kalshi moves with market beliefs, detecting shifts faster.
That means:
• Rate odds adjust quicker
• Volatility pricing is sharper
• Macro-dependent assets adjust faster
This is a paradigm shift in macro forecasting.
⸻
🔄 3) Traders Can Use This Info
Instead of reacting to Fed statements after the fact, traders can now monitor Kalshi probability changes to tailor:
• Interest rate trades
• Bond curve positioning
• FX strategies
• Inflation hedges
• Macro-sensitive equities & crypto
This creates a leading edge.
⸻
📣 The Fed now admits Kalshi’s probability forecasts beat economist surveys and Fed Funds futures. 🧠
Real-time macro signals for traders: welcome to the future. 🔥
#Kalshi #Fed #MacroForecast #FOMC #TradingInsights $XAU
Binance BiBi:
Olá! Dei uma olhada nisso para você. Minha pesquisa sugere que essa informação é bastante precisa e baseada em um estudo de economistas do Federal Reserve de fevereiro de 2026. No entanto, é um artigo de pesquisa, não necessariamente a posição oficial do Fed. Sempre verifique as fontes oficiais
🔍 Analysis: Could 2025 Be a Pivotal Year for the U.S. Dollar?
Some macroeconomic forecasts project potential dollar weakness in 2025, with scenarios suggesting a decline in the DXY could mirror or exceed the 9% drop seen in 2017. This would depend heavily on the Fed's policy path relative to other central banks.
This is analytical speculation, not a factual report.
#usd #MacroForecast #FederalReserve #DXY
Some macroeconomic forecasts project potential dollar weakness in 2025, with scenarios suggesting a decline in the DXY could mirror or exceed the 9% drop seen in 2017. This would depend heavily on the Fed's policy path relative to other central banks.
This is analytical speculation, not a factual report.
#usd #MacroForecast #FederalReserve #DXY
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