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According to digital asset broker K33, the growing supply of Bitcoin held at a loss suggests that the cryptocurrency market is nearing its cycle low. More than 50% of all BTC is currently held at a loss. Historically, when more than half of the circulating supply has been at a loss, BTC has tended to be in the final stages of a bear market.
During the 2017 bear market cycle, Bitcoin bottomed 31 days after more than 50% of the BTC supply was held at a loss. Similarly, Bitcoin bottomed 23 days after half of the supply had been held at a loss in November 2018, and about 13 days after the same development in November 2022. $BTC
According to Bloomberg, the stablecoin issuer Circle has increased its fees to redeem its USDC token for the second time in less than a year. The company has been charging fees for daily redemptions of at least US$2 million. The new fees start at 0.03% per transaction and rise to 0.1% for withdrawals above US$15 million, which mainly affects institutional investors and high-volume traders.
According to DefiLlama, USDC has a market capitalization of US$34 billion, for a total market share of less than 20%. Meanwhile, its biggest competitor, Tether with its USDT token, boasts a market capitalization of US$120 billion, with a market share of nearly 70%. Tether applies a 0.1% fee to mint or redeem USDT transactions that exceed US$100,000. $USDT
The famous investor who predicted the 2008 housing crisis and inspired the film The Big Short, Michael Burry, has described today’s AI frenzy as the beginning of the end, directly comparing it to the dot-com bubble of 2000. The core of Burry’s argument rests on two fairly solid economic pillars: massive investment with modest earnings and a Parabolic pattern of behavior. Historically, these highly vertical moves usually end in crashes.
Burry’s advice to investors is to reject greed and drastically reduce exposure to technology stocks, especially those that have experienced parabolic price increases. If Michael Burry’s thesis proves correct and the Artificial Intelligence bubble bursts, the impact on Bitcoin’s price would be profound, acting through market correlation and the phenomenon of forced corporate selling. $BTC
Last week, amid the whirlwind of news about the earthquakes, a story slipped under the radar:
One year after the Genius Law, 140 companies (including Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, BlackRock, BNY) launch Open USD to challenge the market for US$ 300.000 billion against Circle and Tether. The offer: they share almost all revenue with their distributors and don’t charge for converting to dollars.
Key pieces are still missing (legal issuer, permanent CEO) and the track record of similar consortia is weak, but if it scales, the impact lands directly in Venezuela: more competition that translates into cheaper remittances, shipments, and access to digital dollars.
.💥Strategy has executed the sale of 3,588 BTC for a total of US$216 million. This move is not a "panic" sale driven by the price, but a tactical decision under its new "Digital Credit Capital Framework".
The goal: To finance dividends from its preferred securities (Digital Credit Securities) and maintain its dollar reserve (USD Reserve).
The mechanism: Strategy has set up a monetization program that allows them to sell Bitcoin to secure the liquidity needed for their financial obligations (dividends and interest).
The key figure: Despite this sale, the company still holds a massive arsenal of 843.775 BTC. The sale represents a microscopic portion of its total holdings (approx. 0.4%), but the impact is psychological and philosophical. $BTC
The leading on-chain data analytics platform, CryptoQuant, detects an exceptional flow of 49,000 Bitcoin toward exchange platforms, a historically associated signal with an increase in volatility. As the market goes through a phase of uncertainty, these flows revive the specter of a high-volatility episode and raise questions about the next direction of prices.
A similar pattern occurred when bitcoin fell from approximately US$82,000 in early May to less than US$58,000 by the end of June. $BTC
The current price of Bitcoin is consolidating around US$62,700, showing slight stability after recovering ground in the previous days. For now, BTC maintains strong dominance with 57.9% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. The market is closely watching the stabilization of BTC ETFs after a prior period of capital outflows. The return of institutional interest is supporting the current price rebound.
The key area to overcome is at US$63,700. Consolidating above this level would open the door to targeting the US$65,000 to US$66,000 range. The key psychological and vital support is located at US$60,000. If selling pressure returns and this floor is broken, a pullback toward the US$58,000 area or even US$54,000 is possible. $BTC
The SOL token of Solana jumped to its highest level in more than 30 days yesterday to US$83, marking a break in the altcoin market trend. SOL’s rally gained momentum after an increase in the volume of tokenized transactions on Solana, stablecoin liquidity inflows, and an unexpected resurgence in memecoin activity. Meanwhile, leveraged bullish appetite cooled sharply, suggesting traders are reluctant to bet on additional gains toward US$90.
Backpack’s launch of SpaceX stock trading boosted the use of Solana’s decentralized finance. The recent push came from corporate credit tokens and stock-market indexes, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. According to RWA data, Solana leads with 294.274 active addresses in the tokenized industry. $SOL
Bitcoin returns much less for each dollar of new money that enters than in its early years, a decline in capital efficiency that has intensified as the asset has scaled.
The analytics firm CryptoQuant measured how much fresh capital entered in each bull cycle of bitcoin in relation to the price gain it produced. In the 2011 cycle, approximately US$2.8 billion in net inflows drove a rally of approximately 55,000%.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, arguing that another parabolic run is possible only if BTC can absorb more than US$$1 trillion in new capital, which would take institutional adoption much further than where it is today. $BTC
In a strategic move under the “Make TON Great Again” plan, the blockchain network The Open Network—strongly tied to the Telegram ecosystem—decided to rename its cryptocurrency back to its original, historical name. The original cryptocurrency name, GRAM, that the Durov brothers tried to launch in 2018–2019 before being forced to halt the project due to regulatory issues with the U.S. SEC.
After the relaunch and rebranding announcement, GRAM jumped by approximately 7% weekly, rising from a base of US$$1.5 to local highs above US$$1.7. It is currently stabilizing around US$1.8. The main driver behind the current hype is that major platforms like Binance have just enabled spot trading of GRAM, and also opened futures contracts. For its part, Hyperliquid added leveraged contracts. $GRAM
Never forget that the USA created the biggest bubble in the world in 2008, which destroyed the wealth of many. From that terrible moment, Bitcoin was born—a great alternative to global control by the dollar, one that is used to blow up the economies of countries that do not bend to the United States.
On the day of independence, it is good to remember the wise words of our Simón Bolívar: "The United States seem destined by Providence to plague America with misery, in the name of liberty."$BTC
Does SOL run out of gas or keeps breaking ceilings? 🚀📉
The market structure on the 4H timeframe for $SOL es is undeniably bullish, consolidating above its EMA(200). However, there are signals we can’t ignore if we want to protect our capital:
Look at the RSI at 70.64. We’re in the overbought zone. The price is testing the upper Bollinger Band, which is a natural resistance area. My action plan:
🔹 Long Scenario: I would only enter if I see a healthy pullback to the $78.50 - $79.00 area (near the middle Bollinger Band). I’m not chasing green candles.
🔹 Short Scenario (Scalping): If the price breaks the $81.00 support with strength, I’d look for a quick short targeting $78.00.
The key right now isn’t guessing—it’s waiting for confirmation!
What do you think? Do you see SOL heading for $85, or is it time for a breather? I’ll read your comments. 👇 $SOL
Around 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire this July 3, with a notional value close to US$1.9 billion. This expiration is considerably smaller than last week’s quarter-end closing event, so it is less likely to have a significant impact on the spot market.$BTC
The cryptocurrency market starts today with a bullish breather and significant moves at both the institutional and macroeconomic levels. Bitcoin is trading around US$62,000, consolidating a rebound after having hit weekly lows below the psychological barrier of US$58,000. BTC is on track to close a week of gains, driven largely by employment data in the US weaker than expected, which has reignited risk appetite.
In the technical analysis, there is a key resistance in the US$62,000 to US$63,500 area. A strong breakout at this level would confirm the recovery, while failing to do so could keep the price in a sideways range. The focus of medium-term investors is on the US Federal Reserve and its decision to raise or lower interest rates. $BTC