Galaxy Research lowers the probability of the CLARITY Act bill passing to 50 percent for 2026. The most recent estimate followed an assessment of 60 percent made on June 5, and the reason in both cases was an increasingly tight Senate schedule.

The bill is due to scheduling pressure, not so much resistance to the legislative proposal itself. Galaxy Research research director Alex Thorn said that a processing day has still not been set for the bill, even though it has already been entered into the Senate calendar.

A tighter Senate schedule

After his May assessment, Thorn assessed the probability at 75 percent, then 60 percent in early summer. Each drop related to fewer scheduled session days, not to the content. Galaxy also highlighted the same pressure in an earlier probability assessment.

The Senate adjourned for the state work period on June 29 and returns on July 13. That leaves about four working weeks before a longer recess from August 10 to September 11.

In the same time window, mandatory items are piling up. The SAVE Act, the dispute over the housing dorm bill, the renewal of the surveillance program, and the annual defense bill are all competing for processing time.

Once again, I reduce the likelihood of passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026, mainly due to the shortening timeline and growing competition with other matters…,” Alex Thorn wrote in his message.

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What else does the CLARITY Act still need

The House rejected a bills proposal 294–134 in July 2025, clearly before the Senate. The committee chaired by Tim Scott then advanced the matter 15–9 during a bipartisan hearing on May 14.

Behind the committee’s approval were only two Democratic votes. To pass the actual consideration, 60 votes are needed, so at least seven Democrats must vote in favor.

This calculation depends on what the bill manages to agree on. Ethical provisions and developer protection are still unresolved, and talks about the ethical wording held on June 9 fell apart. More than 200 crypto companies urged the Senate leadership in June to schedule a vote.

Traders in betting markets are even less optimistic. Polymarket estimates the approval likelihood at about 44 percent this week—back in May it was still 74 percent, when ethical concerns began to weaken the odds.

A bill dealing with the structure of crypto markets would split supervisory responsibility between the SEC and the CFTC. If the proceedings run past July, U.S. regulatory uncertainty will persist into the fall.

Thorn still expects a possible vote in July, so the coming weeks are decisive.