cycle

Trong các chu kỳ trước, Bitcoin luôn cần rất nhiều thời gian để đi từ đỉnh chu kỳ xuống đường trung bình 200 tuần (200W EMA).
• Chu kỳ 2017–2018: mất 49 tuần
• Chu kỳ 2021–2022: mất 30 tuần
• Chu kỳ hiện tại: chỉ 17 tuần và giá đã gần chạm 200W EMA
49 → 30 → 17.
Xu hướng giảm về mặt thời gian này không phải sự ngẫu nhiên. Chu kỳ của Bitcoin đang tăng tốc khá rõ rệt.
Sự nén lại nhanh hơn về mặt thời gian này cho chúng ta thấy được hai tín hiệu quan trọng.
Thứ nhất, đáy về mặt giá có thể đến sớm hơn rất nhiều so với kỳ vọng của phần đông thị trường. Áp lực giảm đang được giải quyết nhanh hơn các chu kỳ trước.
Thứ hai và đây là điểm nhiều người bỏ qua nỗi đau lớn nhất có thể không nằm ở giá, mà nằm ở thời gian.
Thay vì những cú sập mạnh, thị trường có thể chọn cách “hành hạ” nhà đầu tư bằng sự đi ngang kéo dài, nhàm chán, bào mòn niềm tin và sự kiên nhẫn.
Thị trường không phải lúc nào cũng tạo đáy bằng hoảng loạn. Đôi khi, nó tạo đáy bằng sự thờ ơ.
Nếu mô hình này tiếp diễn, giai đoạn tiếp theo có thể không còn là sợ hãi mà là mệt mỏi, nghi ngờ và mất hứng thú… ngay trước khi điều kiện vĩ mô bắt đầu cải thiện.
Cá nhân tôi hy vọng kịch bản tạo đáy sớm sẽ xảy ra. Nhưng dù thế nào, có một điều chắc chắn:
Đây không phải là một chu kỳ bình thường và việc áp dụng tư duy cũ cho chu kỳ này sẽ là một sai lầm rất lớn.
#BTC #CYCLE #CryptoAnalysis $BTC

Crypto market expansions are not random events. They are a direct consequence of the business cycle and the liquidity conditions that define it.
Every major parabolic phase in crypto has emerged during periods of monetary transition not during economic strength, but at the point where policy begins to shift from restriction to accommodation.
Quantitative tightening has effectively reached its end. Rate cuts are now being priced into the market, and historically, this sequence is followed by a return to easing conditions. These moments mark structural turning points, not short-term trades.
Bitcoin has recently interacted with what can be described as the natural low of the business cycle a phase characterized by compressed liquidity, risk aversion, and widespread capitulation. While sentiment at these levels is typically pessimistic, history shows they have consistently preceded the most aggressive expansion phases across crypto markets.
Previous cycle resets tell a clear story. During the 2012–13 cycle,
Bitcoin advanced over 5,000%, followed by altcoin expansions of 10–50x.
The 2016–17 cycle produced Bitcoin gains exceeding 6,500%, with select altcoins delivering 20–100x returns.
Even in the more mature 2020–21 cycle, Bitcoin still appreciated over 1,700%, while altcoins achieved 10–40x moves. The magnitude changes, but the structure remains consistent.
The business cycle does not end it resets. These resets occur precisely when conviction is weakest and participation thins out, just before liquidity conditions begin to improve and risk assets reprice accordingly. This is not an argument for complacency or blind optimism, but a reminder that macro-driven expansions are built during periods of doubt, not euphoria.
Positioning during these phases is less about prediction and more about discipline. Understanding where we are in the cycle matters far more than reacting to short-term volatility.
#CYCLE #business #MarketCorrection $BTC

Crypto market booms aren’t accidents — they follow the rhythm of the global business cycle and shifting liquidity. Every major parabolic surge in crypto happens not during economic strength, but at the pivotal moment when monetary policy flips from tightening to easing.

Quantitative tightening is ending. Rate cuts are priced in. History tells us this signals the start of easing, setting the stage for structural market turnarounds — not just short-term rallies.

Bitcoin has recently hit what looks like the natural low of this cycle — a phase marked by tight liquidity, risk aversion, and mass capitulation. While sentiment is bleak here, these moments have consistently preceded the biggest crypto expansions in history.

Look back:
2012–13 cycle saw Bitcoin soar 5,000%+ with altcoins exploding 10–50x.
2016–17 cycle delivered Bitcoin gains over 6,500% and altcoins 20–100x.
2020–21 cycle still saw Bitcoin up 1,700%+ and altcoins 10–40x.The pattern is clear — cycles don’t end, they reset when conviction is weakest and liquidity thins. This is when risk assets reprice higher.
This isn’t a call for blind optimism, but a call for discipline. Understanding your place in the cycle beats chasing every price swing.
Position yourself wisely. The next phase could be historic.
#CYCLE #business #MarketCorrection $BTC

For the first time since 2011, the Fed is officially doing a market-stabilizing operation.

But last time they did it, markets crashed 30%.

Forget tariffs.
Forget gold and silver.

This is the REAL issue no one's telling you about:

The U.S. is stepping up to buy Yen.
They’re trying to save Japan… by crashing the dollar.

And that means one thing:
Intentional USD devaluation.

WHY THIS MATTERS (A LOT)

→ Japan’s bond yields are at multi-decade highs
→ The Yen keeps collapsing

That’s not normal.
It means the system is breaking.

And when markets break…
The Fed steps in to fix them.

Last week, the NY Fed did rate checks on USD/JPY.
That’s the exact step taken before real intervention.

No action yet.
But markets already moved.
Because history remembers.

THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE

1985. Plaza Accord.

The dollar was too strong.
US exports were dying.
Trade deficits were exploding.

So the US, Japan, Germany, France, and the UK made a deal:
→ Sell dollars
→ Buy other currencies
→ Weaken USD on purpose

The result:
→ Dollar index: -50%
→ USD/JPY: 260 → 120
→ Yen: Doubled

One of the biggest currency resets in modern history.

Why it worked?
Because when governments coordinate in FX…
Markets don’t fight them.
They follow.

We saw it again in 1998.
Japan alone failed.
US + Japan together succeeded.

The US sells dollars → buys Yen.

That means:
→ Dollar weakens
→ Liquidity rises
→ Global assets reprice

This is how it always works.

It sounds bullish at first.
BUT THERE’S A CATCH…

Stocks are already at All-Time Highs.
Gold is already at All-Time Highs.
Everyone’s already sitting on big profits.

And there’s still hundreds of billions tied up in the Yen carry trade.

When the Yen strengthens too fast:
→ Forced selling happens
→ Risk assets puke first

We saw it in August 2024:

A tiny BOJ move → Yen up → Bitcoin -23% in 6 days
$600B wiped from crypto.

Yen strength = short-term risk
Dollar weakness = long-term upside

Get ready for the most volatile market of our lifetime.

I’ve been calling major tops and bottoms for over 10 years.

I warned you before, and I’ll warn you again soon.

Follow and turn on notifications before it’s too late.

A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.
$BTC $BNB


#FedWatch #StrategyBTCPurchase #Mag7Earnings #CYCLE