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The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz boosted risk appetite on Friday.
Inflation-related data began showing the impact of the Iran war.
EUR/USD bullish case gains strength, buyers could aim for 1.2000.
The EUR/USD pair closed a third consecutive week with gains near a fresh peak in the 1.1840 area, reaching its highest since late February. A largely empty macroeconomic calendar kept the focus on Middle East developments, with risk-on taking over at the end of the week
There were a few facts and loads of uncertainty surrounding the Iran war. Facts are that the United States (US) and Iran agreed on a ceasefire, which expires on April 22. A similar 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon was announced on Thursday. Both seem fragile and are subject to a long list of conditions. The Strait of Hormuz was suffering a double blockage, with only a few Oil vessels passing through
Things changed by the end of the week, leading to soaring optimism and, hence, substantial US Dollar (USD) losses, on headlines indicating that Iran had fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz following the ceasefire in Lebanon. Tehran declared it will remain completely open for the remainder of the ceasefire, while US President Donald Trump thanked Iran on Truth Social. President Trump, however, also noted that the US naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it “pertains to Iran only” until a deal is 100% complete, adding it should be a quick process as most of the points have already been negotiated
Finally, Iran's State TV clarified that commercial vessels can pass through Hormuz through a certain route and with the permission of the Revolutionary Guards.
More talks between the US and Iran are coming over the weekend, following the failed negotiations in the previous one. US President Donald Trump claimed multiple times that the war can end “soon,” and markets seem to be just now believing it in part. Meanwhile, some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe a peace deal between the two nations will take approximately six months and urged both sides to extend the ceasefire to cover that negotiating window.
Nevertheless, Crude Oil prices are sharply down for the week, but still higher than before the war began. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovers around $80, up from around $65 previous to the war, reflecting relief among speculative interest.
The Eurozone published the final estimate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which was revised to 2.6% YoY, above the anticipated 2.5% yet above the 1.9% posted in February. The core annual CPI rose 2.3%, as previously estimated.
As for the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 4% on a yearly basis in March, up from 3.4% in February, yet below the market expectation of 4.6%. On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.5%, matching February's increase and missing an estimate of 1.2%. The core annual PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, below the market forecast of 4.2%.
From a technical point of view, EUR/USD is bullish. The daily chart shows that spot ot holds above all its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north below the longer ones at 1.1633. The 100-day SMA at 1.1704 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1633 provide relevant support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator aims firmly north within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator maintains a firm upward slope in the mid‑60s, supporting another leg north
In the weekly chart, EUR/USD holds a constructive bullish bias as price remains firmly above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1698 and well clear of the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at 1.1211 and 1.0924, respectively, which together reinforce an undertone of long-term demand beneath the market. The Momentum is supportive of the bullish case, while the 14-period RSI indicator is hovering near 5, leaving room for further gains.
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Geopolitical Volatility: Stalled US-Iran peace efforts and a naval "shoot and kill" order spike the global risk premium.
Eurozone Contraction: April's Composite PMI fell to 48.6, signaling a services sector hit hard by surging energy costs.
UK Manufacturing Rebound: The UK PMI rose to 52.0, providing a buffer for the Pound despite supply chain inflation risks.
The US Dollar Index started to make some serious strides towards its first weekly gain in three weeks – all thanks to people flocking to it as a safe bet as US-Iran peace talks stalled and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to cause problems. And on top of that energy prices have been on the rise and inflation worries have been keeping Fed folk up at night, with a lot of them keeping a close eye on how conflicts might start affecting the economy.
The Euro on the other hand has been feeling a bit of the squeeze as the Eurozone’s composite PMI before slipped down to 48.6 in April which was a lot lower than the 50.1 they were forecasting for. And its not just the numbers that are bad – the services side of the economy has been hit particularly hard by energy costs going through the roof and weakening demand from the Middle East conflict. Also German IFO sentiment took a bit of a dip which adds to their growth worries.
The Pound is looking a bit more stable with the UK composite PMI rising up to 52.0 in April which is a big plus just so long as its a genuine expansion thats being driven by a rebound in the manufacturing sector ( and that went up to a pretty healthy 53.6). But what is being offset by record high costs due to supply chain issues and spiraling input prices have a bit of a dampening effect – all against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty that’s making people nervous.
The US Dollar Index is knocking on the door of 98.78, right at a critical confluence zone where resistance from a horizontal line and a descending trendline intersect. Price is stuck below both the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA, keeping that overall negative bias in place despite a bounce from 97.60. The latest charts show some hesitation with tiny bodies right at the resistance line, implying buyers are starting to lose steam just as they hit the wall. The RSI is getting close to 60 but just flatlining, maybe we’ll see a rejection rather than continuation after all.
If DXY can’t break through to 98.90, it’s likely headed back down to 98.35 and 97.98. To change the game and get the index moving towards 99.50, we need to see a clean breakout above that trendline.
Trade idea: If we get a sell signal below 98.90, look to aim for 98.00, and put a stop above 99.20.
GBP/USD is now trading near 1.3477, and it’s having trouble staying above its rising trendline support – a sign the bullish momentum is starting to wane. Price is stuck around the 50-day EMA, while the 200-day EMA is still lower down at 1.3435 as secondary support. Looking at the price action, it looks like we’re seeing lower highs form after a rejection at 1.3580 – a sign that sellers are slowly taking charge
The RSI is heading down towards 40, a sign that we’re losing momentum overall. If we can get a sustained move below 1.3460, the losses could really accelerate to 1.3380. To stabilise, we’d need to see GBP/USD reclaim 1.3500–1.3520 and try to push on again.
Trade idea: If we get a sell signal below 1.3460, aim for 1.3380, and put a stop above 1.3520.
EUR/USD is floating around 1.1690, and lucky for it, it’s finding support right above the lower edge of that ascending channel and near the 200-day EMA at 1.1649. Yes, it’s had a bit of a rough patch lately, but the higher lows we’re seeing in the charts still keep the overall bullish trend alive. We’re seeing some stabilisation in the latest candles, with smaller bearish bodies and a wee bit of momentum around support.
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A man left dozens of dead animals and smeared blood across a village shop in a scene resembling a "horror movie", a court has heard.
James Kempster, 39, of Totton, Hampshire, is on trial charged with two counts of possessing a dead wild bird and one count of criminal damage.
Prosecutors told Southampton Magistrates' Court that Kempster was one of three men involved in the incident in which 50 dead hares were dumped outside Broughton Community Shop in the early hours of 15 March 2024.
The prosecution said the defendant also wedged a dead barn owl and kestrel into the shop's door handles.
The court heard the motivation for the incident was not known.
CCTV footage shown to the court captured three men arriving at the shop in a 4x4 at about 03:23 GMT.
Two of the men, wearing hoods and balaclavas, can be seen leaving the vehicle and throwing the hares across the shop's forecourt.
One of the men, who the prosecution claimed was Kempster, then tore a hare "in half" before smearing its blood across the shop front.
The court heard the same man then retrieved two birds from the vehicle and "stuffed" them into the door handles.
The trio were captured on CCTV leaving in the vehicle about three minutes after arriving.
This is a horror movie scene outside a Broughton village shop," prosecutor Adam Cooper said.
The barrister said DNA found on the birds matched the defendant, who was also linked to the incident through his mobile phone location, clothing and connections to the vehicle that was used.
The court heard the car, a Suzuki Grand Vitara, had been purchased a month before the incident and registered to "Sean Smith", at the same Hampshire County Council-run traveller site where Kempster lives.
Police were unable to identify anyone of that name linked to the vehicle, which was later found burned out in a lane near Mottisfont, the court heard.
William Hacking, a volunteer at the shop, told the court he arrived shortly before 08:00 and discovered the scene.
He said he went home to collect a shovel and bags to clear up the mess, fearing it would distress others.
Hacking also told the court the barn owl, which he removed from the door handle, had "clearly been shot".
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Guernsey's States-owned airline Aurigny will make a £5m loss this year, the politician responsible for the oversight has estimated.
States Trading Supervisory Board President Mark Helyar blamed the "cannibalisation" of passenger numbers to London by British Airway's new Heathrow route, which launched on 19 April.
Aurigny said it had consistently stated a new Heathrow route from a competitor would "have a materially negative impact on the airline's own passenger revenues to and from London". It also said it was not going to provide a "running commentary" on revenue.
The Committee for Economic Development (ED), which supported the launch of the Heathrow route, has been contacted for comment.
In a statement, the airline said: "Aurigny neither has the intention nor the authority to provide a running commentary on revenue and financial performance throughout the year."
During a series of questions from States members, following an update by Deputy Helyar to the States Assembly, Helyar said: "The new daily Heathrow service is clearly positive for connectivity.
But additional capacity into London, especially on a route which is central to Aurigny's business, will affect Aurigny's London services and may have knock‑on effects for other routes such as Southampton, and, in turn, will generate financial losses in a publicly-owned business."
During the question and answer session in Guernsey's States, Economic Development (ED) President Sasha Kazantseva-Miller said Aurigny did not have a published schedule of flights from October.
She said the lack of forward bookings could be down to flights not being available from after November onwards, something Helyar agreed with.
Helyar added: "If Aurigny is to be required to break even, it may have to cut something to do that.
This could include Gatwick. The whole reason Aurigny was purchased was because British Airways left the island.
We now need to land a new air policy to see what the Aurigny board can do protect itself."
ED has not revealed what financial support has been provided to British Airways to facilitate the new route
The committee has also confirmed it was working on a new air policy framework.
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After last week’s punt, key warrantless surveillance powers are set to expire on April 30, and it will be hard to clinch a longer-term Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act extension that can get 60 Senate votes and a House majority.
The Department of Homeland Security shutdown is on its 66th day and the House hasn’t passed the Senate bill funding DHS through September minus Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection.
Senate Republicans will address that with a separate, party-line funding bill that would fund immigration enforcement for the rest of Trump’s presidency.
Text for the Senate’s budget resolution setting up the bill is expected early this week, with an unlimited vote-a-rama in the coming days.
In Tennessee, a bill championed by White House adviser Stephen Miller would allow public schools to deny enrollment to undocumented children. In Idaho, employers would have been forced to use the government E-Verify system to stop undocumented immigrants from getting jobs. In Utah, undocumented immigrants would have been denied public assistance for vaccines or food for pregnant mothers.
But businesses and Christian groups helped block each of those proposals from becoming law.
Business leaders across various industries are nervous about the many immigration-focused bills being proposed or that have recently passed at the state level, which negatively impact the workforce,” said Jennie Murray, president of the National Immigration Forum, an advocacy organization that represents Fortune 500 companies.
In fact, of the roughly 200 bills targeting legal and undocumented immigrants in state legislatures this year, fewer than two dozen have made it into law so far, according to a Washington Post analysis of data from the American Immigration Council. More than 80 of the measures have died, multiple were vetoed, and dozens more have made little progress this spring legislative season, although several state legislatures are still in session
Many of the bills share common goals and similar texts, and they reflect the immigration enforcement priorities of the Trump administration
But much of the most aggressive legislation has stalled after failing to gain traction, even in red states such as Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and Idaho
Still crazy that Idaho legislators are killing every single bill we got on illegal immigration,” Republican Idaho state Sen. Brian Lenney wrote on X on March 17.
In Utah, Republican state Rep. Cheryl Acton called a bill that would have denied public services to undocumented immigrants a “violation, really, of the Sermon on the Mount.” The measure never got a sponsor in the state Senate, after being introduced by Republican state Rep. Trevor Lee, who told The Post that the White House was “very supportive” of the bill. When asked if the White House pressured him to introduce the bill, Lee demurred.
I wouldn’t call it pressure, more just what can we do to help you guys now that we have the border sealed,” Lee said about the White House’s role advocating for the bill. “What can we do as a state [to help the White House]
Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, told The Post in a statement that “The Trump Administration has led a government-wide, transformational effort to remake how we address public safety in America. … It’s not surprising that states across the country want to imitate President Trump’s successful policies on a state level.”
At a time when Congress is gridlocked, more Republican-controlled states are stepping up to try to implement the Trump administration’s agenda to restrict immigration.
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Israel and Lebanon have announced a 10-day ceasefire to allow negotiations for a more permanent security and peace agreement to continue.
The truce was announced by United States President Donald Trump on Thursday and came into effect at 21:00 GMT.
The ceasefire follows six weeks of fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group, Hezbollah. In its war on Lebanon, Israel has killed at least 2,196 people and displaced more than one million.
But on Friday morning, Lebanon’s army reported several ceasefire violations by Israeli forces.
Will the ceasefire last? What are its terms? Here’s what we know:
Announcing the ceasefire on Thursday, Trump called it a “historic day”.
In a post on Truth Social, he said, “May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening
According to a statement released by the US State Department on Thursday, under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Israel will “preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defence”, while not carrying out “any offensive military operations”.
The statement suggested that Israel can also exercise this right “at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks
“This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities,” it added.
I hope Hezbollah acts nicely and well during this important period of time. It will be an GREAT moment for them if they do,” Trump wrote in his Truth Social post
Trump said that the 10-day truce includes Hezbollah.
“No more killing. Must finally have PEACE
On Thursday, after announcing the ceasefire, Trump said a deal to end the war on Iran was “very close” and that peace talks may resume with Tehran in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad as early as this weekend.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has also welcomed news of the ceasefire in Lebanon, according to Iranian state media, and framed the truce as part of a broader agreement with the US to pause the regional conflict.
Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York, noted that, so far, Iran has held firm on its negotiation position that the ceasefire between Tehran and the US and Israel should include a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
This deal between Israel and Lebanon could represent a move to set the ground for further US-Iran negotiations, removing a sticking point to further negotiations,” he told Al Jazeera.
However, Featherstone pointed out that this could also be another example of Trump seeking to take credit for a negotiated truce
His manoeuvres to gain attention for ‘ending wars’ as part of his campaign to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize have previously led Trump to claim that he has ended numerous conflicts, real and imagined,” he said.His manoeuvres to gain attention for ‘ending wars’ as part of his campaign to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize have previously led Trump to claim that he has ended numerous conflicts, real and imagined,” he said.
“This could be another example of this Trump-style claiming credit,” he added
Nader said that while the ceasefire may be influenced by broader US-Iran dynamics, it should be viewed as a “distinct” issue.
“Iran does retain leverage in the region through its proxy, Hezbollah, which can affect the timing and intensity of escalations,” he told Al Jazeera
“However, the Lebanese track remains fundamentally and legally distinct and should be understood on its own terms. It is not directly tied to issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme or ballistic capabilities,” he explained
“Rather, it revolves around bilateral concerns between Lebanon and Israel, including land border delimitation, security for residents on both sides of the frontier, and maritime border issues
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The United States military command that oversees the Middle East (CENTCOM) has said that two of its ships have travelled through the Strait of Hormuz, a claim swiftly denied by Iran.
On Saturday, the command said that the two destroyers, the USS Frank E Peterson and USS Michael Murphy, had “transited the Strait of Hormuz and operated in the Arabian Gulf as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
In a statement, US Admiral Brad Cooper hailed the ships’ presence in the strait as a turning point in the US and Israeli war against Iran, which began on February 28.
Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage, and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce,” he said.
The passage would represent a major shift. Control of the strait has been a major point of contention, given that a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passes through the waterway, as well as large amounts of fertiliser and other goods
Iran effectively closed the narrow strait, save for pre-approved ships, in the wake of the initial US-Israel attacks in February. That, in turn, snarled both commercial and military traffic and sent global fuel prices soaring
On Saturday, a spokesperson for the Iranian military’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters swiftly denied the US statement
“The claim by the CENTCOM commander regarding the approach and entry of American vessels into the Strait of Hormuz is strongly denied,” the spokesperson said.
The initiative for the passage and movement of any vessel is in the hands of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran
The IRGC, in turn, vowed “a strong response” to any military ships passing through the strait
Meanwhile, the prospect of a prolonged and costly war is considered a political liability for Trump and his Republican party, with the 2026 US midterm elections quickly approaching.
Saturday’s talks came at the six-week mark of the war, and it is unclear whether the ceasefire will hold beyond its initial two-week period.
Speaking to reporters later in the day, Trump said the US and Iranian delegation remained in “very deep” talks. But he maintained he was ambivalent about the negotiation’s outcome
“Whether we make a deal or not, makes no difference to me, because we’ve won,” he said
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Japan has pledged to provide $10bn (£7.4bn) to help its Asian neighbours, especially those in South East Asia, secure energy including crude oil as the region reels from disruptions caused by the Iran war.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced the new cooperation framework on Wednesday after an online meeting with other Asian leaders.
Japan relies on South East Asia for petroleum-derived products, most notably medical equipment - something that Takaichi stressed at a press briefing on Wednesday.
Japan is closely interconnected with each Asian country through supply chains and mutually dependent with them," she said.
Japan's cooperation framework aims to help Asian countries procure crude oil and petroleum products, as well as maintain supply chains and expand stockpiles.
Asia is especially vulnerable to energy supply disruptions stemming from blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, as nearly 90% of the oil and gas passing through the key waterway is bound for the region
Japan's foreign ministry said the $10bn in financial aid was roughly equivalent to a year's worth of crude oil imports by countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean)
It added that the initiative was welcomed by leaders at the meeting - including those from the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh and South Korea - and that funding for the project would come from a range of sources
These include state-backed institutions like Japan Bank for International ​Cooperation and Nippon Export and Investment Insurance, as well as the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Asian Development Bank
Takaichi said the initiative would not negatively impact Japan's domestic oil supplies
At the end of 2025, Japan's reserves held enough oil for 254 days of domestic consumption - but the global energy crisis has prompted authorities to tap into these reserves
Last month, Japan released a record 50 days' worth of oil from its reserves. Authorities have said they would release another 20 days' worth in early May.
Fears about a shortage of naphtha - a petrochemical produced from crude oil and a key raw ingredient in plastics - are also simmering in Japan. These worries are especially pronounced in hospitals, where critical medical supplies like syringes, gloves and dialysis equipment are made with the substance.
While Takaichi has urged calm and said there would be no immediate disruptions, fears remain that naphtha shortages could further stress the country's healthcare system, already straining under an ageing population.
There are also anxieties across South East Asia, which has been hit hard by soaring oil prices. Governments have urged people to carpool and curb the use of air-conditioning in a bid to conserve energy. The Philippines, meanwhile, has declared a national energy emergency.
On Wednesday, at the same summit hosted by Japan, Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr called on Asean to activate its fuel-sharing pact
No single country in Asia can insulate itself from supply chain shocks of this scale by acting alone," he said
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The US Department of Justice has asked a federal appeals court to throw out the convictions of 12 people who were found guilty of seditious conspiracy related to the 6 January 2021 riots
Although President Donald Trump issued more than 1,000 pardons for those convicted for their role in the Capitol riots, he opted to commute the sentences of a dozen members of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers.
That meant they could be released from prison, but their convictions remained on the record.
The United States has determined in its prosecutorial discretion that dismissal of this criminal case is in the interests of justice," the US Attorney's Ofice in Washington, DC, said in a filing on Tuesday.
The court approving the request to wipe out the convictions would mark a symbolic victory for Trump.
He pledged in his presidential campaign to free those charged or convicted for participating in the riot, where protesters sought to stop Congress from certifying that he lost the 2020 election to former President Joe Biden. On his first day back in office, Trump issued pardons or commutations for more than 1,500 people.
Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and several members of his group were among those whose sentence was commuted.
Rhodes, a former US Army paratrooper and Yale-educated lawyer, led a contingent of his militia members to Washington. They stashed weapons in a hotel room across the Potomac River in Virginia while participating in the melee.
Rhodes did not enter the Capitol but directed his members from outside, and was sentenced in 2023 to 18 years in prison after being found guilty of seditious conspiracy, or attempting to overthrow the government.
He's among those seeking to expunge his record in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, which has set a 17 April deadline to file the requests.
If the court throws out the convictions, the Trump administration's justice department will be spared from having to argue for keeping them in that process.
While former Proud Boys leader Henry "Enrique" Tarrio was also convicted for seditious conspiracy over the riot, he was pardoned. Prior his pardon, Tarrio was sentenced to 22 years in prison.
Follow the twists and turns of Trump's second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher's weekly US Politics Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.
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