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$BTC Bitcoin now appears to be moving into a typical bear-market relief phase. The structure looks familiar, closely mirroring what was seen in the 2022 cycle.
A decline of more than 50% from the all-time high has already played out, and the current upward move fits the pattern of a relief rally rather than a full trend reversal. In previous cycles, this stage often created the illusion that a bottom had already formed, pulling more traders back into the market too early.
However, historical cycles suggest caution. After major cycle tops, the path to a true bottom has consistently taken time rather than forming quickly:
2012 cycle: around 405 days to bottom
2016 cycle: approximately 362 days
2020 cycle: roughly 376 days
Each cycle followed a similar rhythm—
BTC/USDT SWING SETUP 📉📊 (Range Resistance Rejection Plan)
Trade here 👇
$BTC Entry :
74555-75000
TPs:
74000
73500
73000
72500
72000
SL:
75555
Why this setup
Price sitting inside major macro distribution / resistance band (120K–135K)
Historical cycle structure suggests relief rally phase before final expansion down
Heavy liquidity stacked below 107K–97K zones
Bear market bottom region aligns near 60K–43K demand zone
Risk-reward favors downside continuation if rejection confirms
Confirmation Trigger:
Rejection below $115,000 = bearish continuation starts
Risk Note:
Break & hold above $140,500 invalidates bearish structure
Conclusion:
Macro resistance short setup — waiting for distribution confirmation before deeper correction 📉
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