cryptocycle

📅 February 4 | Every time Bitcoin falls sharply, the market doesn’t just look at the price: it looks at its past. And that past weighs heavily. The recent correction, which has already erased nearly 40% from the October high, has reignited one of the biggest collective fears in the crypto ecosystem: the infamous four-year cycle, that pattern that in 2018 and 2022 ended in brutal crashes and long winters.

📖Bitcoin is going through one of its most uncomfortable moments in the current cycle. According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, the price has fallen by around 40% since its October peak, with an additional 11% loss in the last week alone, amidst a global environment dominated by increased risk aversion.
This type of rapid and profound movement is precisely the fuel that reignites comparisons to the great bear markets of the past.
The irony is that Vetle Lunde has been one of the most consistent critics of the rigid four-year cycle theory. In October, he went so far as to claim that this model was dead.
However, today he admits that market behavior is starting to resemble 2018 and 2022 too closely, not due to a collapse in fundamentals, but because psychology is once again taking over. Fear, memory, and the need to protect past gains are outweighing structural data.
K33 explains that this type of fear can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. When long-term investors reduce their exposure to avoid losing what they've gained, and new capital is held back, selling pressure increases.
The result is a market that behaves as if it's entering a classic bear market, even when underlying conditions are much stronger than in the past.
And therein lies the crucial difference. Unlike in 2018 or 2022, Bitcoin today has a genuine institutional base. There are billions of dollars invested in regulated products, more financial advisors with access to the asset, and traditional banks launching crypto-related services.
Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment is more favorable than before: interest rates are no longer rising aggressively, which reduces pressure on risk assets.
Another crucial point is what is not happening. In 2022, the market plummeted in a chain reaction due to forced deleveraging events: Luna, Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Genesis, FTX, and the structural impact of GBTC acted like dominoes. According to K33, there is no comparable systemic risk, making a prolonged 80% collapse in a single year, as in previous cycles, unlikely.

Topic Opinion:
Every generation of investors carries its scars, and Bitcoin is no exception. But while the behavior may seem similar, the structure is different. There is more serious capital, fewer hidden bombs, and a more mature ecosystem. That doesn't eliminate volatility or risk, but it does change the probabilities.
💬 Do you think the four-year cycle still prevails?

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