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$BNB

Next week $BTC is still about watching the rebound. At the moment, only some people have shifted to going long. We need more people to believe and say that there won’t be the final drop. After that, it’s still about luring the chasing-long行情 (trend-following longs).

I don’t know if everyone remembers a few days ago when it broke above 66. Suddenly, a lot of short sellers turned to going long. When it was rising before, they didn’t say anything; but now that it’s falling, they’re still not saying anything.

Is it possible that Trump could suddenly “pivot” toward Iran? Now, someone has even turned this into a quantified metric.

Andrew Bishop’s team at Signum Global Advisors has created a “Hormuz TACO Index,” designed to gauge when Trump is most likely to change course.

The indicator mainly looks at four data points: Brent crude oil prices, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries, the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and the S&P 500 index.

The logic is straightforward: the higher the oil price, the higher the Treasury yield, the fewer ships pass through Hormuz, and the steeper the drop in U.S. stocks, the greater the economic pressure the U.S. faces—and the higher the cost for Trump to continue taking a hardline stance.

They backtested several past instances where Trump’s policies showed clear signs of a shift, and found that when this index deviates from its normal range by 2.3 to 3.4 standard deviations, Trump often starts adjusting strategy, with the average turning point occurring at about 2.9 standard deviations.

Based on the latest data, the pressure is getting closer and closer to that range. The model estimates that if market conditions do not ease meaningfully, the earliest possible pivot signal could appear around July 22; at the latest, it is unlikely to go beyond July 30. July 26 is the highest-probability date according to the historical model.

What’s interesting about this model is that it turns what was originally a question of speculation—whether “Trump will TACO”—into a stress indicator that can be continuously monitored. In the end, policy decisions are not determined solely by the military dimension; they also reflect the economic costs brought by oil prices, inflation, interest rates, the stock market, and Hormuz shipping.

Of course, this is ultimately a statistical model built on historical backtesting, and it cannot guarantee that Trump will change his position around July 26. The Hormuz situation this time is more complex than in the past—whether the historical patterns will still hold and continue to work remains to be seen soon.

Actually, it’s pretty much like this—placing a single order in a fictional breakout space is simpler, reducing stop-loss costs!$BTC

$SNDK Yesterday I went for a double-top just to show off?

Yesterday in the square I said that a brother asked whether it could still be chased, and I told him no. Above 1600, going long basically has no good value. After the rebound ends, it still has to drop. Instead, it’s more worthwhile to take the other direction.

Yesterday it was 1634 where the community notified a short. It dropped for a bit, and then a few brothers moved the stop-loss on 1710 to 1675. Then when the US stock market opened, it pumped up directly and continued to probe the high, which swept out a few brothers.

Then this morning I saw a double-pin probing the high. I told them there was no big issue, and the brothers who got stopped asked me whether it was all about entering at the current price. Yes, it did drop, and it feels pretty comfortable.

This thing—I said in the square when it was 1356 that it would rebound to 1600, and I took profit. Then at 1634 I opened a short again.

Actually, this month’s $BTC market is very simple. It has been running around the moving average all the time. On the 4-hour timeframe, it sometimes dips below the moving average, but it has always been trading above the daily midline!

As of now, the 4-hour level is 64500, and the daily level is 64200. You can argue, but this is just how the market is moving—if it’s trading above the daily level, then it’s still a bullish trend!

What you need is simply to find the patterns. Every segment of the market has its own path. When an indicator from a previous segment stops working, you switch to a new one. If you can find the pattern, your win rate can improve by at least 80%!

A bit boring! I looked around and didn’t know what to talk about. You tell me whether you haven’t shared your views numbered $BTC —if you haven’t, then it means you’re continuing the views from before.

The U.S. “CLARITY” Market Structure Act for the encryption industry and others has been in the works for years.

The House passed it, the Banking Committee passed it, and the Agriculture Committee version was also integrated. With only the Senate’s full vote remaining to reach 60 votes, however, it got stuck. And the reason it stalled wasn’t the SEC, wasn’t the CFTC, and wasn’t Wall Street—it was a meme coin that Trump himself issued.

The CLARITY Act includes an ethics provision requiring the president, vice president, members of Congress, and other public officials to be unable to profit from issuing or promoting digital assets while in office, and to handle any existing interests through blind trusts or by selling them, among other measures. The problem is that Trump has both a meme coin and World Liberty Financial. The Democrats seized on this, and Republicans also had to coordinate internally first—so the entire bill dragged on for several months.

Until July 21, Trump reached a compromise with key Republican senators. On the 22nd, Lummis released a new consolidated draft. The biggest internal obstacle within the Republican Party was basically cleared, and hopes were to push for a Senate vote as soon as possible. But Democrats still weren’t satisfied. Gallego said the text still needed changes, and Warren was even more blunt that the loopholes were too big—so there was still a long way to go before reaching 60 votes. On Polymarket, the approval probability had rebounded to just over 40%, suggesting the market had started repricing again, but it was still far from actual passage.

The most dramatic part is that a bill that could determine the future U.S. digital-asset regulatory framework nearly stalled because of the president’s own meme coin. In the end, it was only pushed forward again after Trump gave the nod. Even if the Senate passes it, the two chambers later still have to coordinate versions, so it won’t be done in one step—but the direction is becoming clearer and clearer: for the first time, the U.S. is preparing to clearly define the digital-asset regulatory framework at the federal level, and truly draw the boundary between the SEC and the CFTC.

Over the past few years, the entire industry has lived in a gray zone. The SEC sues Coinbase today, investigates Uniswap tomorrow—everyone can only guess what the regulator will do while they carry on with business. If CLARITY ultimately takes effect, it doesn’t mean regulation disappears; it means that there will finally be a clear set of rules of the game. In the end, the biggest stumbling block for this bill was almost that meme coin issued by the very person most eager to push it forward. The story of the crypto industry is always more absurd than any movie.

In the 2017 bull market, almost everyone could feel the top is near.

In Moments, news, TV, taxi drivers, even people who never touch investments were all talking about Bitcoin. The market was like an ever-heating celebration—every day, someone rushed in to grab the last baton. So the top was especially lively.

But in recent rounds, the market has started to feel stranger.

Prices made fresh highs, yet the level of discussion was far less than before. Many people, while shouting that the bull run wasn’t over, waited for altcoins to fully explode. What they got wasn’t the final surge. Instead, the行情 gradually cooled. When they looked back, the peak had already passed.

Many attribute it to a lack of an “altcoin season,” but I think the more fundamental reason is that market control has shifted from retail investors to institutions.

Retail investors like to chase rallies—the higher the price, the more excited they get. Institutions are almost the opposite: they care much more about position management and realizing profits. When price reaches their target position size, they cut. When it falls back to their target position size, they buy again. They don’t need emotion, and they won’t change their plans just because the market is euphoric. So the closer you get to the top, the more likely institutions become the sellers.

More importantly, a large portion of the chips today is changing hands through OTC, block trades, and other methods. The truly large-scale profit-taking may not necessarily show up clearly in the order book. What you see is that the price is relatively stable; what you don’t see is that the chips have already quietly been transferred.

So today’s top probably won’t feature the same kind of all-out, everyone-crazy scene as in the past. Instead, it will slowly form amid a chorus of “it can still go up” and “the target price hasn’t been reached yet.”

Lately, I’ve been feeling more and more that the most dangerous time in a bull market isn’t when everyone starts to panic—it’s when everyone thinks there is no risk at all. Because what truly determines when the trend ends is never the last retail investor chasing the top. It’s those large funds that have already cashed in their profits ahead of time.

In the next bull market, if you still wait to sell until all signals show up, chances are the same story will repeat. In many cases, the most comfortable time to sell isn’t a good selling point. A truly good selling point often makes people feel, “Did I sell too early?” That’s also why realizing profits is harder than buying at the lowest point.

One of the biggest political obstacles to U.S. President Trump accepting new crypto ethical restrictions—and to the U.S. passing its “Crypto Market Structure Act” (CLARITY Act)—may be fading.

The U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Digital Assets has released accompanying ethical provisions. The core content is simple: government officials, including the president, vice president, members of Congress, and federal judges, as well as their spouses, are prohibited from receiving compensation through the issuance, sponsorship, or promotion of digital assets. However, normal holding and trading of crypto assets such as BTC and ETH are not covered by the restriction.

If the rules are violated, related earnings must be turned over and violators could also face fines. If exchanges knowingly list tokens that are in violation, they may also be subject to penalties.

This means that if the bill ultimately passes and takes effect in accordance with its current version, and if TRUMP, WLFI, and USD1 are still deemed to be tied to the Trump family’s interests, then at least in the U.S. market there is indeed a risk that some trading platforms could delist them or restrict trading. As for whether overseas exchanges will follow suit, it will depend on local regulation and enforcement intensity.

Notably, this restriction will expire on January 20, 2029, coinciding precisely with the end of Trump’s current presidential term. Therefore, it appears more like a political compromise aimed at eliminating conflicts of interest and helping push the structural bill through, rather than establishing a permanent system banning government officials from participating in crypto markets.

As of now, these ethical provisions have not officially become law, and the structural bill itself is still in the legislative process. But if this arrangement can be implemented smoothly, the controversy that the market has long worried about—“making the rules while also issuing tokens to profit”—will likely cool significantly

A brother asked: is the next bull market’s $ZEC worth bottom-fishing? Don’t talk about what price would be suitable for buying the dip yet—let’s talk about the track first. The price worth buying at comes last!

As for the private-money/closed-circle route, I’m honestly not very optimistic about it right now.

Actually, from the 2022 Tornado Cash incident: regulators are slowly coming to accept crypto, not because it’s completely anonymous, but because most on-chain funds are still traceable—analyzable and therefore regulatable. If an asset is completely cut off from the regulatory system, the pressure it faces will only keep increasing.

After that, everyone has seen how things developed. Exchanges gradually delisted privacy coins, wallets reduced support, liquidity got worse, and the developer ecosystem kept draining away. As fewer and fewer people participate in the network, the network’s security has also started to be affected, with even discussions about the risk of a 51% attack.

So now I’m more inclined to believe that what will truly grow in the future won’t be pure privacy coins, but rather solutions that find a balance between privacy and compliance. After all, capital can accept higher fees and slower speeds, but it’s hard to accept an asset that can never enter the mainstream financial system.

As for ZEC, it will transition in the future, but I won’t consider bottom-fishing unless it’s around 100 or so—because in this bull cycle, the high point is forever its high point!

Brothers, what do you think the main narrative of the next bull market cycle will be?

Let me share my own view first. I believe the biggest mainline in the next cycle is no longer about pumping public chains, DeFi, AI, or memes. Instead, it’s truly starting to compete with traditional finance for market share. The core is stablecoins + RWA + tokenized securities. By tokenizing assets and using stablecoins, an increasing amount of traditional financial assets—such as U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries—will be moved onto the blockchain, gradually replacing existing financial infrastructure and building a more convenient, lower-cost, and more global value-transfer system.

If this direction holds, then in the future, Crypto’s competitor won’t be limited to Crypto alone—it will be the global capital markets. At that point, the contest won’t be about who can launch the next new concept, but who can capture and support more real-world capital and assets.

I’d love to hear your thoughts, brothers. Welcome to discuss and talk it through.

People might be laughing at “Maji” — opening a trade once and getting liquidated once — yet they keep wondering why this person never seems to lose it all?

Take this position as an example: $ETH was opened at an average price of 1892, but the liquidation price was 1895. Don’t they care about money? They’re doing reckless rollover trades. A bunch of people are mocking him; but actually, he’s the one mocking you. This position is only being shown to everyone as a demo!

A while back, I chatted with the founders of a few institutions. I’m surnamed Huang, and “Maji” is also okay to call me “Huang.” We talked about it: this publicly disclosed position is, in reality, just an ant-sized position. Personally, he has a team of traders helping to operate it. Those traders open countless smaller positions in the opposite direction, and the total adds up to several times the publicly disclosed position!

What you see others losing is actually them making money. In the end, we’re the biggest fools!

I see some brothers saying, “Big Brother, you regret it!” A few days ago, you said it’s 1300-something and said $SNDK would be an oversold rebound—didn’t expect it to be that strong. Now, can you still get in?

My view is: it’s a rebound. After the rebound ends, we’ll keep looking bearish. Any long position above 1600 has no value for money at all.

On the contrary, the other direction is more cost-effective.

Many people think that after the passage of the Clarity Act, the crypto market will be in for a huge positive surprise. But after reading the bill carefully, I don’t think it’s as dramatic as everyone imagines.

Its biggest significance isn’t that something will instantly skyrocket. It’s that it clearly defines the regulatory boundaries for U.S. crypto. In other words, the SEC vs. the CFTC—who regulates what; how exchanges can stay compliant; how projects can raise funds; how banks can participate; and which DeFi activities are protected—all now have a more明确 framework. These are indeed long-term positives, but long-term positives and a pull-up right away are, of course, two different things.

From what I can see, the biggest beneficiaries are actually the U.S. compliance framework. Platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood will likely find it smoother to launch new businesses such as tokenized securities and custody. Banks, RWA, and tokenized securities infrastructure will also have more opportunities. Regulatory pressure on public-chain projects should be lower than before. You won’t have to worry every day about being labeled a security by the SEC—and that’s good. But a drop in regulatory risk doesn’t automatically mean valuations will jump immediately, and it doesn’t necessarily mean the coin price will rise either.

As for DeFi, I don’t think we should be overly optimistic. The bill protects those truly decentralized participants—like developers, node operators, and self-custodial users. But protocols involving centralized control, special permissions, or even money-laundering risks will still be regulated.

So I’m more inclined to see it as an improvement in the development environment, rather than as something that will cause the entire DeFi sector to enter a new market cycle.

The most controversial area is still stablecoins. Many people believe the biggest upside of the clear legislation is for Circle and USD1. But if the final version still limits passive yield solely from holding stablecoins, then many subsidy and incentive models in the future may need to be adjusted. Circle is already one of the most compliant stablecoin issuers in the U.S. What it really lacks isn’t compliance—it’s performance and access to a larger market. So for now, I can’t find this as a major fundamental upside for it. Of course, if market sentiment turns bullish and people start trading the story enabled by the bill, that’s a different matter.

So my view hasn’t changed: what the Clarity Act addresses is the question of “whether you can do it,” not the question of “whether it will pump.” It will reduce uncertainty in the industry and attract more traditional finance into crypto. But in the end, what determines price is still capital, demand, and profitability—not the bill itself.

Every one of my opinions emphasizes it many times rather than just saying it once. $币安人生 —when I was at 0.71, I said: if it were to get cut in half, maybe there could be some potential, but now there is no potential. Whoever made you buy it, you tell him to let it go.

Then when it was at 0.67, I said I’m holding back a big move, and this big move will only be a drop. I’m not against everyone having faith in a certain coin or stock, but faith has to be a matter of timing. If someone buys at the lows and it goes up tenfold, that’s called faith. If you buy in and it first drops 80%, and you might hold for a few years just to break even or make a little profit—that’s called a clown.

I’ve never been afraid of voices that question me. In $HYPE , when I was at 70, I said we had already reached the top range. Then some brothers didn’t believe me. At 67, I said I had already started to show signs of fatigue—the view remains unchanged. Some people said, “Please hurry up and short.”

For these, I never explain, because time will speak for me.

As prices rebound, more and more such statements are appearing.

I really want to laugh—these are basically all the kind of “contrary signals plus following the crowd.” Back at the end of June, I said for many consecutive days that we should see a July rebound. Now that it’s happening, I’m still saying this is only a rebound—prices will fall again in the future!

People who make statements like this are basically led around by the market! $BTC

Still the same old saying $ETH : what’s happening right now is the biggest scam. If anyone tells you that you can buy now and see 3000—or that it will reach this and that number—just tell them to get lost. I’m saying, you might not believe me, but in the next two months you’ll have your answer. Take the increase, for example: it’s not an active push upward—it's just passive follow-through.

Don’t believe me? Look at what happened a week ago. Ethereum accelerated by a wave: back then when BTC was 64,000, it was 1924. Now, a week later, BTC is 66,000—it’s 1928.

So what if this bounce for BTC ends? How much could Ethereum fall—do you even dare to imagine?