September CPI is coming. Here’s how I’m positioning 👇
Middle East tensions are escalating, oil is climbing, and US energy costs are following. Headline CPI is widely expected to tick up in September, and I think the risk is skewed to the upside.
If energy keeps feeding into headline inflation, oil stays bid. I’m watching key level as the line in the sand. A hot CPI print plus more geopolitical headlines could push it through resistance. If CPI cools, I expect a pullback toward support.
A hotter CPI revives bets on another Fed hike before year end, which puts upward pressure on yields. That’s a tailwind for short duration plays like $TBT and a headwind for long bonds. If yields break above level , I’ll be adding to the hedge.
⚖️ My plan
Hotter than expected → stay long oil, lean into the yield-up trade
In line → reduce size and wait for confirmation
Cooler → take profits on oil, expect yields to ease
I’m keeping position sizes smaller going into the release, since volatility spikes around CPI.
$TMF
$BZ
Will CPI come in hotter than expected? Will oil keep climbing? Where do you see Treasuries heading next? 👇
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#CPIWatch #FedRate #SeptemberCPIWatch #EvernorthNasdaqDebutClosesDown1.05% #BinanceSquareTalks
Middle East tensions are escalating, oil is climbing, and US energy costs are following. Headline CPI is widely expected to tick up in September, and I think the risk is skewed to the upside.
If energy keeps feeding into headline inflation, oil stays bid. I’m watching key level as the line in the sand. A hot CPI print plus more geopolitical headlines could push it through resistance. If CPI cools, I expect a pullback toward support.
A hotter CPI revives bets on another Fed hike before year end, which puts upward pressure on yields. That’s a tailwind for short duration plays like $TBT and a headwind for long bonds. If yields break above level , I’ll be adding to the hedge.
⚖️ My plan
Hotter than expected → stay long oil, lean into the yield-up trade
In line → reduce size and wait for confirmation
Cooler → take profits on oil, expect yields to ease
I’m keeping position sizes smaller going into the release, since volatility spikes around CPI.
$TMF
$BZ
Will CPI come in hotter than expected? Will oil keep climbing? Where do you see Treasuries heading next? 👇
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#CPIWatch #FedRate #SeptemberCPIWatch #EvernorthNasdaqDebutClosesDown1.05% #BinanceSquareTalks