Real return of 3% right now? That's quietly massive. In a few years we'll look back and realize how rare that window was. When yields are this high above inflation, it changes the game for risk assets. $BTC and everything else has to fight harder for capital when safe money pays you real.
This is the setup people miss in real time. High real rates don't last. They compress. And when they do, that's when risk comes back online hard. Right now we're in the squeeze — cash actually works, bonds aren't a joke, and speculative plays have to prove themselves.
The cycle turn happens when this flips. When real rates drop back toward zero or negative, suddenly sitting in dollars feels like losing. That's when the next wave builds. We're not there yet, but this is the condition that sets it up. Watch the rate structure, not just the headlines.
This is the setup people miss in real time. High real rates don't last. They compress. And when they do, that's when risk comes back online hard. Right now we're in the squeeze — cash actually works, bonds aren't a joke, and speculative plays have to prove themselves.
The cycle turn happens when this flips. When real rates drop back toward zero or negative, suddenly sitting in dollars feels like losing. That's when the next wave builds. We're not there yet, but this is the condition that sets it up. Watch the rate structure, not just the headlines.