$BTC Has it Own Clock.
Bitcoin’s Nasdaq correlation: +0.66 over the last 21 trading sessions.
Yet my tested models using liquidity proxies, software stocks, stablecoin supply and BTC’s own history all failed to beat “no price change” across five forecast horizons: 1, 4, 8, 12 and 16 weeks.
These were forecasts tested on unseen data.
Negative bars mean worse forecasts, not falling Bitcoin prices.
Moving together today doesn’t tell you who leads tomorrow.
Bitcoin’s Nasdaq correlation: +0.66 over the last 21 trading sessions.
Yet my tested models using liquidity proxies, software stocks, stablecoin supply and BTC’s own history all failed to beat “no price change” across five forecast horizons: 1, 4, 8, 12 and 16 weeks.
These were forecasts tested on unseen data.
Negative bars mean worse forecasts, not falling Bitcoin prices.
Moving together today doesn’t tell you who leads tomorrow.
