My 2030 price target for $NBIS is $3,000.
Nebius expects to have at least 5 GW of active compute capacity deployed by 2030.
AI compute economics have changed dramatically.
• Revenue used to be around $10M per MW
• Long-term contracts are now closer to $20–25M per MW
• Short-term capacity can reach $40–50M per MW
• Nebius’ first capacity auction cleared 15% above its previous highest contracted price
For 2030, I’m assuming $25M in annual revenue per MW.
5,000 MW × $25M = $125B in annual revenue.
Then comes profitability.
AWS currently operates at ~40% operating margins, implying an estimated net margin around 30%.
At scale, I’m modeling a 25% net margin for Nebius.
$125B revenue × 25% = $31.25B in net income.
And the growth won’t stop in 2030.
Management expects to add at least 1.5–2 GW of incremental compute capacity per year.
From a 5 GW base, that’s equivalent to another 30–40% of capacity annually.
A company generating ~$31B in net income while still expanding capacity at that pace can justify a 30x P/E.
$31.25B × 30 = ~$940B market cap.
I’m also assuming roughly 25% additional share dilution by 2030 to account for the massive amount of capital required to fund this expansion.
That gets me to approximately $3,000 per share.
Sounds insane today.
The numbers don’t.
Nebius expects to have at least 5 GW of active compute capacity deployed by 2030.
AI compute economics have changed dramatically.
• Revenue used to be around $10M per MW
• Long-term contracts are now closer to $20–25M per MW
• Short-term capacity can reach $40–50M per MW
• Nebius’ first capacity auction cleared 15% above its previous highest contracted price
For 2030, I’m assuming $25M in annual revenue per MW.
5,000 MW × $25M = $125B in annual revenue.
Then comes profitability.
AWS currently operates at ~40% operating margins, implying an estimated net margin around 30%.
At scale, I’m modeling a 25% net margin for Nebius.
$125B revenue × 25% = $31.25B in net income.
And the growth won’t stop in 2030.
Management expects to add at least 1.5–2 GW of incremental compute capacity per year.
From a 5 GW base, that’s equivalent to another 30–40% of capacity annually.
A company generating ~$31B in net income while still expanding capacity at that pace can justify a 30x P/E.
$31.25B × 30 = ~$940B market cap.
I’m also assuming roughly 25% additional share dilution by 2030 to account for the massive amount of capital required to fund this expansion.
That gets me to approximately $3,000 per share.
Sounds insane today.
The numbers don’t.
