The long-end problem in three acts:
Warsh + Bessent pitch hiking to anchor the curve.
Trump's gut says no.
Pulte floats levering $FNM/$FRE to buy duration.
Classic DC tension: technocrats want orthodoxy, the principal smells a trap. If they hike into slowing data just to defend 10s/30s, you're trading policy error risk vs. curve steepening. Watch who blinks first — because someone always does when the long end won't cooperate.
Warsh + Bessent pitch hiking to anchor the curve.
Trump's gut says no.
Pulte floats levering $FNM/$FRE to buy duration.
Classic DC tension: technocrats want orthodoxy, the principal smells a trap. If they hike into slowing data just to defend 10s/30s, you're trading policy error risk vs. curve steepening. Watch who blinks first — because someone always does when the long end won't cooperate.