Bernstein lowered its 2030 gold price forecast from $6,100 per ounce to $5,600, but kept a long-term bullish view on gold. According to Sina Finance, the firm said gold still has room to rise even if real interest rates continue to edge higher.

The cut was mainly tied to changes in the interest-rate outlook. Earlier this year, markets had expected one to two rate cuts ahead, but expectations have now shifted to two to three rate hikes before 2027. U.S. real interest rates have also risen from about 1.7% in early March to about 2.7%.

Bernstein said gold has shown strong resilience this year in a high-rate environment. Gold ETF holdings have remained broadly stable, and gold prices did not fall sharply after the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike. Analyst Bob Brackett said gold could continue rising even as real interest rates increase slowly, similar to what happened between 2023 and 2025.

Bernstein said continued central bank gold buying remains the core structural support for gold prices. The firm said the process of global central banks shifting foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and other Group of Seven currencies toward gold is not over, and some large reserve holders still have gold accounting for less than 10% of reserves.

Bernstein said slower central bank gold purchases are the main downside risk. It also said persistently high diesel and other refined fuel prices could push inflation higher again, strengthen expectations for further rate hikes, and increase rate pressure on gold. The firm added that changes in the U.S. political environment could also affect safe-haven demand.