Raymond James said the global grain market is tightening noticeably in 2026, driven by lower crop output, strong demand, and limited Black Sea export capacity. According to Sina Finance, it said the imbalance is most pronounced in corn, with 2026/27 global corn consumption expected to exceed production by about 29 million metric tons, creating the largest absolute supply-demand gap in 33 years.

Karen Braun, chief market analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, said global corn supply is tightening rapidly after the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report and the end of the Pro Farmer crop tour. According to Sina Finance, U.S. corn stocks-to-use has fallen from 12.1% earlier this year to 9.7%, dropping below the key 10% level.

U.S. corn production still faces downside risk. Since late summer, U.S. corn crop ratings have fallen 11 percentage points, and some growing regions have also experienced late-season heat. According to Sina Finance, the U.S. Department of Agriculture currently estimates corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, but final output remains uncertain.

The tightening supply has already been reflected in prices. Since May 1, corn and wheat futures have each risen about 8%, while soybean futures have gained about 12%. According to Sina Finance, total corn and wheat output in major exporting countries is expected to fall by about 84 million metric tons from a year earlier.

Global grain supply still faces multiple variables, including the final U.S. harvest, Black Sea export capacity, and weather in South America. According to Sina Finance, a potential strong El Nino could affect the next growing season in South America, while Brazil's room to expand soybean acreage has also narrowed.

CONAB expects Brazil's soybean planted area to rise only 0.7%, one of the lowest increases in nearly 20 years. According to Sina Finance, U.S. corn and soybean planted area combined reached a record 183.5 million acres in 2026, but some farmers may shift acreage next year as wheat returns improve.