Last night (October 4th), the US ADP employment data for September came in below expectations, with only 89,000 jobs added, marking the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. Additionally, the pace of wage growth continued to slow. However, the US stock market was boosted by the disappointing “mini non-farm” data, as it reduced market expectations of a Fed interest rate hike. As a result, the three major stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising by over 1.35% to reach 13,236.01. The VIX fear index also dropped by 6.17% to 18.56. Tesla performed well, leading the market with a gain of 5.93%. The US Treasury yield initially surged to 4.884%, reaching a 16-year high, but later retraced all of its intraday gains to close at 4.734%.International crude oil prices did not continue their upward trend, with WTI crude oil falling by 3% and Brent crude oil dropping by 2.69%.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In terms of options, the IV for BTC/ETH has once again declined by approximately 0.8%/1.2% overall. Recently, the IV has been further decreasing due to a significant selling of bullish options. As a result, the upward slope of the ETH term structure has almost been flattened, and both BTC and ETH are now positioned around 30% IV.

In terms of trading, the Long Put Spread strategy has continued to dominate, with a cumulative trading volume of 2324 BTC / 8250 ETH. The trades mainly occurred in options with October 20th and December 29th expirations for BTC, and October 20th and November 24th expirations for ETH. Additionally, due to the decline in Vol Skew recently, we have observed a Long Risky Trade involving 3500 ETH per leg, aiming to take advantage of the RR strategy expiring at the end of the year.

Source: Deribit (As of 5 Oct 08:00 UTC)

Source: SignalPlus, IV keeps dropping

Source: SignalPlus, after experiencing several consecutive days of decline, ETH Skew has encountered some support at a low level.

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade