cocoa

Cocoa falls nearly 5% as inventories rise and chocolate demand remains subdued

📉 ICE March 2027 cocoa fell 4.79% to settle at $5,290 per tonne on November 5, the largest decline among agricultural contracts tracked by The Edge.

📦 Stocks at ICE warehouses rose to around 3.74 million bags. Greater availability is easing immediate shortage concerns and weighing on prices.

🍫 Barry Callebaut cited a 4.3% decline in chocolate consumption volumes across surveyed markets in the year through August. Its own quarterly sales volumes recovered, suggesting uneven demand.

🌦️ West African weather and crop risks could still support prices. The session suggests traders placed greater weight on current inventories and subdued demand.

🔎 ICE inventory trends and upcoming cocoa grinding data will help assess whether selling pressure persists or begins to ease.

#Cocoa $CC

New York cocoa extends gains as markets reprice West African supply risks

🍫 New York December cocoa closed the August 31 session around $6,768 per ton and reached an intraday high of $6,821, extending the strong rally from late last week.

🌍 The main driver remains concern that Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026/27 main crop could be delayed by 8–10 weeks. Port arrivals are expected to stay weak early in the season, while October–December volumes could reach only about 900,000 tons, nearly 18% below the same period last year.

📉 Ghana is adding to supply concerns after COCOBOD projected output to fall by at least 16%. StoneX also cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate from 149,000 tons to just 25,000 tons.

📦 The market is mainly pricing in a shift in supply timing and a thinner supply-demand buffer, rather than an immediate physical shortage.

#Cocoa $CRV