bitcoin

Question: Is #bitcoin bottoming at $68K?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: We're in month 1 of a 5-9 month capitulation process, and you can't skip steps.
Wait, what?
Let me explain.
Bitcoin doesn't bottom when price crashes 46%.
It doesn't bottom when Fear & Greed hits 15.
It doesn't bottom when $5 billion gets liquidated.

It bottoms when TIME exhausts sellers.
And time? Time takes 5-9 months.
Here's the pattern everyone's missing:

2018 bear market: 113 days (4 months)

2022 bear market: 274 days (9 months)

2026 bear market: 5-9 months from NOW
We just started.
Let me show you what the next 5-9 months look like—and why you can't rush this.
Look at This Chart

See those blue boxes?
Left box: 2018-2019 bear market - 19 bars, 113 days

Middle box: 2022 bear market - 39 bars, 274 days

Right side: 2026 bear market - We just entered
That's how long it takes.

Not a week. Not a month. 4 to 9 months.
And we're in week 2.
What Is a "Time-Based Capitulation Zone"?
Most people think capitulation is about price.
"Price crashes 50%+ = capitulation = bottom."
That's wrong.
Capitulation isn't a single event. It's a process. And that process takes TIME.
The Historical Pattern

Look at Bitcoin's past bear markets:
2018-2019 Bear Market:
Duration: 19 bars (113 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $6K → $3KTimeline: Entered zone November 2018, bottomed December 2018
2022 Bear Market:
Duration: 39 bars (274 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $30K → $15.5KTimeline: Entered zone May 2022, bottomed November 2022
2026 Bear Market (Now):
Duration: Estimated 5-9 monthsPrice range: $126K → $68K (so far)Timeline: Entered zone February 2026, bottom likely July-October 2026
The pattern: Capitulation takes 4-9 months, not days or weeks.

Why Time Matters More Than Price

Here's what most traders get wrong.
What They Focus On (Price Signals):
✓ Price dropped 46%

✓ Fear & Greed hit 15 (Extreme Fear)

✓ $5.42B in liquidations

✓ Volume exhausted

And they say: "All the capitulation signals are here! Buy now!"

The problem: These price-based signals happened in Week 2 of the 2022 bear. The actual bottom came 9 months later.
What Actually Matters (Time Process):
Phase 1: Shock Drop (Weeks 1-4)
Price crashes fast. Panic everywhere. Everyone thinks "this is it."
Phase 2: Dead Cat Bounces (Weeks 5-12)
Price bounces 20-30%. Hope returns. "Bottom is in!" Then it crashes again.
Phase 3: Grinding Lower (Months 3-6)
Slow bleed. No bounces. Just sideways-to-down. Boredom + fear.
Phase 4: Final Capitulation (Months 6-9)
Last panic sell-off. Then... silence. Bottom forms not with a bang, but with exhaustion.
We're currently in Phase 1, heading into Phase 2.
The 2022 Playbook (What to Expect)
Let me show you how 2022 played out—because 2026 is following the same script.
May 2022: The Crash
Luna/UST collapse triggers panic$BTC drops from $40K to $28K (-30%)Everyone: "This is capitulation!"Reality: It wasn't. It was Phase 1.
June-July 2022: Dead Cat Bounces
BTC bounces to $24K, then $22KTraders: "Bottom is in! Back to $30K!"Reality: More longs to liquidate. Back down we go.
August-October 2022: The Grind
BTC ranges $18K-$22KBoring. Sideways. Nobody cares anymore.Volume dries up. Sentiment shifts from fear to apathy.

November 2022: Final Capitulation
FTX collapsesBTC dumps to $15,479This was the actual bottom. 6 months after the initial crash.
Total duration: 6 months from "capitulation started" to "bottom confirmed."

Where We Are Now (February 2026)

We just entered the zone.
Here's what the next 5-9 months probably look like:
February 2026 (NOW):
Crashed to $68K lowFear & Greed hit 15Everyone calling bottomReality: Phase 1 complete. Phases 2-4 ahead.
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounces to $80K-$90K"Bull market is back!" narrativesReality: More liquidations, back down.
May-June 2026:
Grinding lower, $60K-$70K rangeBoredom sets inRetail loses interest
July-August 2026:
Possible final low: $50K-$60K range?Or maybe just a wick to $55KThis is when bottom likely forms.
September-October 2026:
Recovery beginsNew uptrend confirmedFour-year cycle resumes
Total timeline: 5-9 months from now = July-October 2026 bottom.

Why You Can't Rush This
People always ask: "Why can't we just bottom now? All the signals are here!"
Because sellers need time to exhaust.
It's Not About Price, It's About Psychology
Week 1: Panic sellers exit

Week 4: Overleveraged traders get liquidated

Week 8: "Buy the dip" crowd gives up

Week 12: Swing traders capitulate

Month 4: Long-term holders start questioning

Month 6: Final wave of "I'm done with crypto" selling

Only then after TIME has exhausted EVERY type of seller does the bottom form.

You can't skip steps. You can't speed it up.
Capitulation is a process, not an event.
What This Means for You
If we're in a 5-9 month capitulation zone, here's how to think about it:
If You're Waiting to Buy:
Don't go all-in now.
Yes, prices are "cheap" compared to $126K. But they might get cheaper.
Layer your buys:
20% now ($68K range)30% in April-May ($63K-$68K range)50% in July-August ($55K-$63K range)
If You're Already Holding:
Don't panic sell.
If you believe in Bitcoin long-term (2-5 years), this 5-9 month chop is noise.
$50K, $60K, or $70K all irrelevant if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
But don't add heavy here. Wait for Phase 4 (final capitulation).
If You're Trading:
Trade the bounces, not the trend.
We're in a range for months. Buy dips, sell rips. Don't hold.
Expect:
Bounces to $78K-$88K (sell)Drops to $58K-$63K (buy)Repeat for 4-6 months
The Key Dates to Watch
Based on historical patterns, here are the critical windows:
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounce phase. If we rally to $83K-$93K, don't FOMO. It's a bull trap.
May-June 2026:
The grind. If you're still underwater, this is where it tests your conviction.
July-August 2026:
Most likely bottom window.
Watch for:
Fear & Greed dropping below 10Capitulation wick (sharp drop + immediate recovery)Volume spike on selling exhaustionOn-chain: Long-term holders accumulating aggressively
September-October 2026:
Confirmation phase. If bottom formed in July-August, this is when uptrend confirms.
What Could Change This Timeline?
Not everything follows historical patterns. Here's what could break the 5-9 month timeline:
Scenario 1: Macro Crash (Faster Bottom)
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K in March due to macro collapse, the timeline compresses.
Extreme pain = faster capitulation.
Scenario 2: #etf Inflows Resume (No Deep Bottom)
If institutions start buying again in April-May, we might bottom at $63K-$68K without going lower.
Strong buyers = shallower correction.
Scenario 3: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
If CZ's supercycle thesis is right, 2026 might not follow the four-year cycle at all.
New paradigm = no playbook.
But based on current data, the 5-9 month timeline is most likely.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
We just entered a time-based capitulation zone.
Historical data says:
2018-2019: 113 days (4 months)2022: 274 days (9 months)2026: Likely 5-9 months

What that means:
Bottom probably forms July-October 2026We're only in Phase 1 (shock drop)Phases 2-4 ahead (bounces, grind, final capitulation)Don't expect a quick V-shaped recovery
What to do:
Layer your buys over months, not daysDon't panic sell if holding long-termTrade the range if you're activeWatch July-August for actual bottom signals
The hardest part:
Waiting. Patience. Accepting that the bottom isn't here yet.
But that's how bear markets work.
Time > Price.

What's your take do you think the bottom forms in 5-9 months, or is this timeline wrong? Are you buying now or waiting? Let me know.

Trên podcast Unchained, nhà báo Laura Shin đã trò chuyện với Parker White, Giám đốc đầu tư của DeFi Development Corp. Phân tích của ông nhanh chóng lan truyền vì nó chỉ ra một “thủ phạm” ít ai để ý: thị trường quyền chọn của quỹ ETF BlackRock IBIT.
Hôm đó, Bitcoin lao dốc từ 70.000 xuống 63.000 USD. Nhưng lạ ở chỗ: giao dịch spot và futures gần như bình thường. Thứ bùng nổ lại là quyền chọn IBIT, nơi biến động ngụ ý tăng dựng đứng. Điều này cho thấy vấn đề không đến từ lực bán đại trà, mà từ một cú “nổ” trong thị trường phái sinh.
White cho rằng một quỹ đầu cơ ngoài ngành crypto tại Hong Kong đã bán khống biến động giá. Khi volatility tăng mạnh, họ thua lỗ nặng, nhưng thay vì cắt lỗ lại tiếp tục gồng vị thế. Đến khi bị yêu cầu rút vốn và dính quy định thanh toán 90 ngày, họ buộc phải thanh lý hàng loạt — tạo ra cú sốc dây chuyền kéo giá Bitcoin sụp xuống.
Nói ngắn gọn: đây có thể là một “big short” thất bại, không phải panic sell. Đôi khi, thị trường không sập vì đám đông bán tháo — mà vì một tay chơi lớn mắc kẹt và buộc phải thoát hàng bằng mọi giá.

Không chỉ có một quỹ mắc kẹt vì bán khống biến động — mà còn có thể tồn tại một “tay săn mồi” đứng phía sau.
Trong khi nhiều bên thua lỗ vì bán quyền chọn, Parker White tin rằng một quỹ khác đã âm thầm làm điều ngược lại: tích lũy quyền chọn bán giá rẻ từ giữa năm, khi biến động của Bitcoin chạm đáy lịch sử.
Chiến thuật nghe đơn giản nhưng cực kỳ hiệu quả. Họ đẩy giá xuống vào cuối tuần — thời điểm thanh khoản mỏng nhất. Đến khi thị trường mở cửa, các nhà giao dịch quyền chọn của IBIT thuộc BlackRock buộc phải bán ra để phòng ngừa rủi ro. Áp lực kỹ thuật này khiến đà giảm bị khuếch đại, giống hiệu ứng lở tuyết.
White nhấn mạnh: “Đừng nhầm lẫn. Thực tế là tuần này đã có một nhà giao dịch tiền điện tử tỷ phú mới được nhắc đến,”
Nếu đúng, đây không phải cú sập ngẫu nhiên — mà là một thương vụ short được dàn dựng bài bản.
Mắt xích quan trọng sẽ lộ diện vào hạn nộp báo cáo 13F ngày 15/5. Nếu các cổ đông lớn của IBIT tại Hong Kong biến mất khỏi danh sách nắm giữ, đó gần như là lời xác nhận cuối cùng.
Hiện tại, tất cả vẫn chỉ là giả thuyết. Nhưng những mảnh ghép đang dần khớp lại — và thị trường có thể vừa chứng kiến một trong những cú “big short” thông minh nhất lịch sử crypto.

#bitcoin #ETHETFsApproved
$BTC

Most traders look for the cleanest breakout.
I disagree with that instinct.
Clean levels attract crowded orders, and crowded orders create easy liquidity.
That tension often defines breakout outcomes in popular tokens.
The clearer the level, the heavier the positioning around it.

This dynamic explains why popular tokens often stall at obvious highs.That is why popular coins trap traders.
They trap them during the “perfect” moment.
To ground this discussion, I will reference three widely traded coins: #bitcoin , #Ethereum , and #solana
Each has shown similar liquidity behavior across different cycles.
When we look at breakout traps at range highs in $BTC the pattern becomes easier to see.
BTC has ranged for weeks across 2021–2024 cycles, making the range high obvious to everyone.
Breakout buys stack above it, while short stops sit there as well.
The uncomfortable truth is simple
That zone becomes a liquidity magnet, and price can push through it and still fail.
Not from weakness, but from absorption.
In my experience, acceptance matters more than the first impulse.
A pullback that holds above the former high shows buyers defending structure.
It also reduces exposure to first-candle traps.

This concept of waiting for structural defense also appears at swing highs in ETH.
Liquidity sweeps above prior highs in $ETH have been common during volatile periods.
We saw this repeatedly in 2021–2022 and again during 2024 continuation attempts.
A wick breaks the high, triggers stops, and price closes back inside structure.
Most traders treat the wick as strength.
I disagree with that interpretation.
If we look closer, many of those wicks represent liquidity collection.
The practical adjustment is restraint.
Wait for a close above the level and observe follow-through.
A later reclaim often provides cleaner structure than the first push.
below highlights that distinction.

Meanwhile, traps also develop inside strong trends, particularly in SOL.
Fake range expansion in $SOL during 2023–2024 encouraged chasing near highs.
Expansion candles attracted late entries, and pullbacks quickly reset positioning.

The uncomfortable truth is about the entry location.
Late entries compress stop placement and weaken reward-to-risk.
Direction can be correct while timing still fails.
I prefer structure-based entries.
Look for higher lows and pullbacks near prior consolidation.
This ties risk to structure rather than emotion.
The chart logic below outlines that approach

At the same time, beyond price structure, volume can also create misleading signals in BTC and ETH.
Breakout volume spikes in BTC and ETH often appear convincing.
-I agree volume matters.
-I disagree that spike volume automatically confirms continuation.
Historically, expansion into resistance with extreme volume has stalled.
Late buyers provide liquidity for distribution.
Price can pause even after strong closes.
What this suggests is simple.
Compare breakout volume to prior impulse legs.
Watch whether continuation volume sustains before adding exposure.
Slide below frames volume within structural context.

But on the other hand, liquidity traps are not limited to resistance.
Stop hunts under support in BTC have repeated during consolidation phases.
Throughout 2022–2023 ranges, price dipped below support, triggered stops, then reclaimed.
The breakdown appeared convincing until structure recovered.
Most traders cluster stops at the same level.
That predictability concentrates liquidity.
Sweeps become more likely as a result.
I prefer reclaim confirmation.
Allow price to close back above support and define risk beneath the sweep low.
This aligns the trade with recovered structure.
The diagram below illustrates the reclaim logic.

The pattern that follows across all these setups is consistent.
Popular tokens trap traders at obvious levels because liquidity gathers there.
That is often structure-driven rather than manipulation.
I focus on acceptance, reclaim, and structure-based risk.
This approach reduces breakout frustration over time.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Obvious levels attract concentrated liquidity.Wait for acceptance after breakout attempts.Treat wick breaks as possible liquidity sweeps.Favor pullback entries over expansion chasing.Compare breakout volume to prior impulses.Use reclaim confirmation under support breaks.

Now back to you👇

If you had to self-check, when you look at your failed breakouts, was the idea wrong, OR did you simply enter at the worst possible liquidity zone?
#MarketRebound

عندما يقول راي داليو إن “النظام العالمي قد انهار”، فهذه ليست جملة عابرة… بل تحذير من رجل أسّس أكبر صندوق تحوط في العالم ودرس دورات صعود وسقوط الإمبراطوريات لعقود.

المستثمر الملياردير ومؤسس Bridgewater يرى أننا دخلنا “المرحلة السادسة” من ما يسميه “الدورة الكبرى” — وهي المرحلة التي تسبق عادةً التحولات الجذرية في موازين القوى العالمية.

ماذا يقصد داليو؟
وفق تحليله، العالم يدخل فترة:
صراعات تجارية واقتصاديةحروب تكنولوجيةعقوبات مالية وتجميد أصولتوتر جيوسياسي بين القوى الكبرى (خصوصًا أمريكا والصين)احتمالات تصعيد عسكري
ويشبه الوضع الحالي بثلاثينيات القرن الماضي، عندما سبقت الحروب الكبرى أزمات ديون، حمائية اقتصادية، وصعود القومية.
بمعنى أوضح:

النظام القائم على الدولار، التحالفات المستقرة، وسلاسل الإمداد العالمية… لم يعد كما كان.
ماذا يعني هذا للكريبتو؟
في أوقات:
العقوباتتجميد الأصولالقيود على التحويلات البنكيةفقدان الثقة في العملات التقليدية
يبدأ المستثمرون بالبحث عن بدائل خارج النظام المالي التقليدي.
هنا يظهر دور:
Bitcoin كأصل مقاوم للرقابةشبكات البلوكشين كوسيلة تسوية عابرة للحدودالأصول الرقمية كتحوط ضد طباعة الأموال
لكن الصورة ليست وردية بالكامل 👇
⚠️ على المدى القصير:
عند ارتفاع التوترات الجيوسياسية، يميل السوق إلى “العزوف عن المخاطرة”.

هذا يعني:
تقلبات أعلىسيولة أقلضغط على الأصول عالية المخاطر (ومنها الكريبتو)
🚀 على المدى الطويل:
إذا استمر تآكل الثقة في النظام المالي التقليدي، فقد تتعزز رواية “البيتكوين كملاذ بديل” وليس فقط أصل مضاربي.
الخلاصة
نحن أمام مفترق طرق تاريخي.
إذا كان داليو محقًا، فنحن لا نمر بدورة اقتصادية عادية… بل بتحول في النظام العالمي نفسه.
والسؤال الحقيقي ليس:
هل سينخفض السوق غدًا؟
بل:
هل ستعيد هذه المرحلة تشكيل دور البيتكوين في النظام المالي العالمي؟

📌 التقلب قادم… لكن كذلك الفرص.
#bitcoin
#crypto
#Geopoliticsb
#DigitalGold"
#MarketVolatility
$BTC