$BTC market profile update
after yesterday’s strong rally, which was mainly driven by short liquidation, the market opened today near the previous day’s value area high.
In the first four periods, the market showed low confidence.
The current profile is balanced, with value overlapping higher than the previous day. The current low is a good low, and the high is a good high as well.
I see yesterday’s rally as pure short covering, not new-money buying. The reason is simple: the market couldn’t push above a clear visual reference, the 3/09 high.
since short covering weakens the market here, I see two possible scenarios going into Monday:
~ the bulls continue higher and invalidate the short-covering move.
~ the market reverses and continues downtrend.
market generated information since FOMC day:
~ The bulls intentionally trapped the bears on Wednesday and Thursday.
~ Wednesday’s and Thursday’s profiles look very similar.
~ Thursday’s profile did not revisit Wednesday’s POC.
~ Thursday’s value area was higher than Wednesday’s and did not overlap.
~ Friday’s profile was too truncated.
~ Friday’s low was a poor low.
I’m expecting another quiet day tomorrow.
after yesterday’s strong rally, which was mainly driven by short liquidation, the market opened today near the previous day’s value area high.
In the first four periods, the market showed low confidence.
The current profile is balanced, with value overlapping higher than the previous day. The current low is a good low, and the high is a good high as well.
I see yesterday’s rally as pure short covering, not new-money buying. The reason is simple: the market couldn’t push above a clear visual reference, the 3/09 high.
since short covering weakens the market here, I see two possible scenarios going into Monday:
~ the bulls continue higher and invalidate the short-covering move.
~ the market reverses and continues downtrend.
market generated information since FOMC day:
~ The bulls intentionally trapped the bears on Wednesday and Thursday.
~ Wednesday’s and Thursday’s profiles look very similar.
~ Thursday’s profile did not revisit Wednesday’s POC.
~ Thursday’s value area was higher than Wednesday’s and did not overlap.
~ Friday’s profile was too truncated.
~ Friday’s low was a poor low.
I’m expecting another quiet day tomorrow.
