Обзор рынка 16 сентября 2026

Ruudv · 2026-09-16T02:53:30.000Z

1. Рынки акций и сырьевые товары: Азиатские рынки открылись разнонаправленно, при этом WTI и Brent резко пошли вверх • Движение с утра: Азиатско-Тихоокеанские фондовые рынки открылись разнонаправленно с преобладанием восходящего импульса в среду утром, несмотря на то, что Уолл-стрит зафиксировала снижение два дня подряд накануне вечером перед объявлением решения ФРС по процентной ставке. • Всплеск цен на нефть: o Фьючерсы на WTI: взлетели на +4,38% до USD 105,8 за баррель. o Brent Futures: Rose +2,90% приближаясь к USD 110 за баррель. o Война на Ближнем Востоке продолжает оставаться главным катализатором, подталкивающим цены на энергоносители вверх.

1. Equity & Commodity Markets: Asian Markets Open Mixed, WTI & Brent Surge 
• Morning Movement: Asia-Pacific stock markets opened mixed with a strengthening bias on Wednesday morning, even though Wall Street recorded a decline for two consecutive days overnight ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision announcement. 
• Crude Oil Price Surge: 
o WTI Futures: Soared +4.38% to USD 105.8 per barrel.
o Brent Futures: Rose +2.90% approaching USD 110 per barrel.
o The war in the Middle East continues to be the main catalyst driving energy prices higher.

2. Bond Market & Global Monetary Policy: UST Yield Touches 5.04% 
• US Bond Yield Revolution: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note climbed to 5.04%, recording its highest level since 2007. 
• Federal Reserve (FOMC Tonight): The market widely anticipates a 25 bps rate hike due to US inflation continuing to stay above the 2% target for more than five years. 
• European Interest Rate Divergence (ECB vs. BOE): 
o ECB: Officially raised its benchmark interest rate last week. 
o BOE: Projected to hold its benchmark interest rate on Thursday amid slowing UK economic growth.

3. Japanese Economy & Monetary Policy: BOJ Hike Prospects & Trade Deficit 
• BOJ Rate Hike Expectations (This Friday): 
o The Bank of Japan is projected to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.25% on Friday.
o This hike marks an acceleration of the BOJ's monetary tightening cycle after a six-month pause since the normalization process began in March 2024 (the last hike was in June 2026).
o Inflation Background: Japan's headline CPI for July reached its highest level this year at 1.9% Y/Y due to surging imported energy costs following the US-Iran conflict, while real wages grew 2.4% Y/Y (positive for 7 consecutive months). 
• Widening Japan Trade Deficit (August 2026): 
o Trade Deficit: Widened significantly to JPY 1,105.6 billion (vs. JPY 294.1 billion in Aug 2025 and the expected deficit of JPY 1,052.6 billion).
o Fourth Month of Deficit: Recorded the largest deficit since January 2026 due to a surge in imports (+28.0% Y/Y) that outpaced export growth (+19.3% Y/Y). #FedRateWatch #dyor 