#布伦特原油突破100美元
👉 油价破百，群里聊通胀链条
Brent raw oil station above $100 per barrel, hitting a new high in seven months 🛢️
The reason is that a Saudi east-west pipeline was stopped by drones. This pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and was originally a backup route. When the backup route goes down, the market thinks not only about this one pipeline.
First, separate supply from risk premium. Part of production was restored on the day the pipeline was shut down, so the loss in oil output was limited. What is rising in the price is more the insurance premium and the cost of rerouting, not the number of barrels. The war-risk insurance rate for oil tankers doubled within a week. The diesel crack spread is already at a year-to-date high, while refinery utilization hasn’t kept up. These costs ultimately have to be accounted for in the import countries’ ledgers.
The path for what happens next is clear. Diesel and jet fuel move first, transportation costs go into companies’ ledgers, and then into inflation data. In the August CPI, the energy component was already trending upward—this move adds another layer.
For crypto, oil prices are a key variable driving inflation. As long as oil prices hold up, rate cuts get pushed back, and risk assets take a first round of “watering” by capital outflows. Safe-haven buying for gold and Bitcoin usually arrives a few days later.
Do you think oil will surge to $110, or retreat back to $90 after tensions ease? Let’s discuss in the comments.
👉 油价破百，群里聊通胀链条
Brent raw oil station above $100 per barrel, hitting a new high in seven months 🛢️
The reason is that a Saudi east-west pipeline was stopped by drones. This pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and was originally a backup route. When the backup route goes down, the market thinks not only about this one pipeline.
First, separate supply from risk premium. Part of production was restored on the day the pipeline was shut down, so the loss in oil output was limited. What is rising in the price is more the insurance premium and the cost of rerouting, not the number of barrels. The war-risk insurance rate for oil tankers doubled within a week. The diesel crack spread is already at a year-to-date high, while refinery utilization hasn’t kept up. These costs ultimately have to be accounted for in the import countries’ ledgers.
The path for what happens next is clear. Diesel and jet fuel move first, transportation costs go into companies’ ledgers, and then into inflation data. In the August CPI, the energy component was already trending upward—this move adds another layer.
For crypto, oil prices are a key variable driving inflation. As long as oil prices hold up, rate cuts get pushed back, and risk assets take a first round of “watering” by capital outflows. Safe-haven buying for gold and Bitcoin usually arrives a few days later.
Do you think oil will surge to $110, or retreat back to $90 after tensions ease? Let’s discuss in the comments.
