24h Check #13 · BTC
Original read: downside continuation. Move evidence: -0.28% over the latest 24h window. Volume evidence: $1.85B quote volume.
Confirmation required acceptance below 77103. Invalidation: a 1h close above 77103.
Result: MISS. Return +0.23%; MFE 1.86%; MAE 1.02%.
The fixed-horizon close does not support the stated direction. MFE and MAE retain the path risk instead of hiding the route to the miss.
For the next read, was level acceptance or persistent volume more informative?
$BTC $XRP
Original read: downside continuation. Move evidence: -0.28% over the latest 24h window. Volume evidence: $1.85B quote volume.
Confirmation required acceptance below 77103. Invalidation: a 1h close above 77103.
Result: MISS. Return +0.23%; MFE 1.86%; MAE 1.02%.
The fixed-horizon close does not support the stated direction. MFE and MAE retain the path risk instead of hiding the route to the miss.
For the next read, was level acceptance or persistent volume more informative?
$BTC $XRP