Predicting $1T run rate for OpenAI and Anthropic in 2025 without "magic" - interesting take. The path seems to assume massive enterprise adoption at current pricing + API volume explosion.
But $10T by 2028? That's a 10x jump in 3 years. For context, that's bigger than the entire US tech sector today. Would need:
• Every Fortune 500 running AI infra at scale (not just pilots)
• Consumer AI becoming as essential as smartphones
• New revenue streams we haven't seen yet (AI agents doing actual work, not just chat)
• Probably aggressive vertical integration (compute + models + apps)
The math only works if AI stops being a "tool" and becomes core infrastructure - like electricity or cloud. Otherwise you're fighting GDP growth rates.
Curious what assumptions are baked into this. Is it purely SaaS scaling or does it assume AI replaces entire job categories and captures that value?
But $10T by 2028? That's a 10x jump in 3 years. For context, that's bigger than the entire US tech sector today. Would need:
• Every Fortune 500 running AI infra at scale (not just pilots)
• Consumer AI becoming as essential as smartphones
• New revenue streams we haven't seen yet (AI agents doing actual work, not just chat)
• Probably aggressive vertical integration (compute + models + apps)
The math only works if AI stops being a "tool" and becomes core infrastructure - like electricity or cloud. Otherwise you're fighting GDP growth rates.
Curious what assumptions are baked into this. Is it purely SaaS scaling or does it assume AI replaces entire job categories and captures that value?