Crypto sentiment has plunged to what CryptoinsightUk founder Will Taylor calls “historical lows,” and the fallout is starting to show on rare, higher-timeframe indicators — signs that, in his view, point toward exhaustion rather than the start of a deeper collapse. In a Feb. 14 weekly note, Taylor argued the market setup is shifting from outright “collapse” toward a late-stage drawdown. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart he highlighted a striking signal: BTC has “just hit oversold levels for only the third time in recent history,” and the two prior instances coincided with either the bear market low or points very near it. That combination of extreme sentiment and an uncommon technical reading, he says, tends to precede a pause in downside momentum. Volatility on the horizon: Bitcoin dominance story Taylor’s core thesis centers on an impending volatility expansion in Bitcoin dominance. He points out Bollinger Bands on dominance are “extremely compressed,” a configuration that historically precedes big moves: “Compression leads to expansion. And expansion leads to volatility. In simple terms, volatility is inbound.” His base case is for dominance to break down — eventually under roughly 36% — while Bitcoin’s price remains resilient or rises. That scenario would imply fresh capital flowing into crypto and a rotation across the risk curve from BTC into altcoins. He references November 2024 as a playbook: when dominance fell by about 10 percentage points then, XRP subsequently posted roughly a 490% rally — a “vertical expansion,” in his words. Signals of altcoin rotation Taylor points to the OTHERS/BTC ratio (market cap outside the top 10 versus Bitcoin) as a corroborating indicator. On the monthly timeframe, he notes the RSI has “just crossed bullish,” and the chart is close to printing a second green monthly MACD volume candle after a bullish cross near the lows. Taken together, he sees growing alignment: compressed dominance volatility alongside relative strength emerging in alt assets. XRP priced in gold: a “historic zone” Perhaps the most specific call concerns XRP priced against gold — an obscure but structurally informative pairing, Taylor says. XRP/gold has “pulled back into an extremely strong historical support region,” and its monthly RSI has hit levels “we have only ever seen once before,” which occurred just prior to the 2017 parabolic expansion. From that base, Taylor sketches a scenario (not a promise): if XRP holds support and completes a 4.236 Fibonacci extension from the current structure, the move could amount to “around 20x against gold.” He is careful to add the obvious caveats — that this would not automatically translate to a 20x move versus the dollar, since gold itself could weaken and macro conditions can change — but he stresses the point is relative strength. Sustained outperformance against gold, he argues, would signal aggressive rotation into risk, an environment where altcoins generally lead. XRP vs ETH and momentum context Taylor also examined XRP relative to Ethereum. Using an Elliott Wave framework (which he calls “a framework, not a certainty”), he suggested XRP may have completed waves one and two against ETH, potentially setting up a more explosive wave three. He highlighted monthly RSI holding above 50 through consolidation as a momentum detail consistent with continuation rather than breakdown. Caveats and conclusion Taylor frames these views as scenarios to watch rather than guaranteed outcomes. The overall message: with sentiment at historic lows, rare oversold weekly signals on BTC, compressed dominance volatility, and multiple relative-strength readings lining up — particularly around XRP — the market could be poised for a rotation and volatility expansion rather than a fresh leg down. As always, he warns, macro shifts and gold’s behavior could materially alter those dynamics. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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