FORM has gained around 14 percent over the past week and the chart looks strong at first glance.

But when I looked at the trading activity underneath the move I found a setup that deserves more attention.

Across the perpetual market sellers are currently controlling around 53 percent of the volume. Total perpetual volume is around $329 million with roughly $174.6 million coming from sellers.

That is not automatically bearish.

But it tells me the rally is facing real resistance from traders who are willing to sell into the strength.

Another detail caught my attention.

The recent price move appears to have been driven more by retail traders while whale activity has remained relatively steady. The Whale Retail Delta is still positive around 0.39 but the recent decline suggests retail traders have been taking more control of the move.

This is where I become cautious.

Retail driven rallies can continue for longer than expected. But they can also reverse quickly when momentum slows and traders start closing positions at the same time.

The spot market is giving a completely different signal though.

Around $15.65 million worth of FORM has been bought recently. Spot netflow is around minus $1.14 million which points toward continued accumulation.

For me this is the most important part of the setup.

Perpetual traders are showing stronger selling pressure while spot buyers are still absorbing supply.

So the question is not whether FORM is bullish right now.

The real question is which side eventually wins.

If spot accumulation continues while sellers keep attacking the perpetual market then the selling pressure could eventually get absorbed.

But if spot buying starts weakening while retail traders begin taking profit then the current 14 percent gain could unwind much faster than expected.

I would not chase FORM simply because the weekly chart looks strong.

I would watch the spot flow first.

Strong spot buying can support the move.

Weakening spot demand combined with heavy perpetual selling would be a very different signal.

Right now FORM is showing strength on the chart but the market underneath is already arguing with that strength.