🚨 $BTC On-Chain Analysis: Critical Market Dynamics

Bitcoin is currently at an extremely sensitive technical juncture. Here, the risk from top-buyers meets potential seller-exhaustion, creating a delicate market balance.

📉 **"Underwater" Supply & Selling Pressure**
Since mid-November, the Bitcoin price has dropped below the 0.75 quantile. This indicates that over 25% of the BTC supply is now "underwater," meaning it was acquired at a higher price than current market levels. These holders face paper losses and may be inclined to sell to mitigate further risk.

⚖️ **Fragile Market Balance**
The market currently navigates a delicate equilibrium between two opposing forces. On one side, the substantial "underwater" supply (over 25%) poses a capitulation risk, where top-buyers might panic sell, driving prices lower. Conversely, persistent selling pressure could lead to seller-exhaustion, forming a market bottom and signaling potential recovery.

🎯 **Key Recovery Levels**
To move out of this high-risk zone and foster market confidence, reclaiming critical levels is essential. First, $BTC needs to reclaim the 0.75 quantile, acting as initial resistance. Subsequently, establishing a strong support zone above the 0.85 quantile is crucial.

Breaking past these supply-based cost levels would indicate that most buyers are returning to profit, thereby reducing potential selling pressure. Historically, such a move could trigger a "Relief Rally," though $BTC might face rejection at the MA200 before a deeper correction. The market remains in a consolidation phase, vulnerable to macro shocks. A failure to advance from current levels could lead to further deleveraging.