As I said yesterday — I felt extremely bearish yesterday. However, it is too early to make bold statements for now — $62,000 support still holds the price. This is the KEY support.
On the one hand, there were plenty of reasons for the dump:
Binance hack
Democrats winning midterms (usually bearish)
Stocks collapsing
Jensen Huang's resignation
Binance selling crypto to cover hack losses
CPI came in hotter than expected
Yes, all these events took place in the past 15 days.
During this time, $TOTAL lost $600B (-22%). Given all these events, we can say that the collapse of the crypto market was not really extraordinary.
🧐 But where were the buyers? ETFs were selling ($2B+ left $BTC ETF this month), exchanges (Binance, Bybit, OKX) were selling, whales mostly selling or holding what was bought at $60K during summer time. More to say, stablecoin liquidity has been shrinking as well: over the past 30 days, almost $15B in stablecoins has LEFT the crypto space. They withdrew money from crypto to save them/buy stocks/Anthropic IPO.
As a result, the only support that managed to stop the dump and provide a considerable bounce was the last one: $62,000. Is it good? Not at all. Breaking this support down = crossing the Rubicon for bulls. My good friend and colleague gave me a great example of the current case: when a thief steals your phone from your pocket, you try to chase him for 5-10 sec without realising you can’t catch up with him. Then you stop.
🏃♂️➡️ The same thing is happening with $62,000 support. It is only a matter of time before bulls realise that defending the $62,000 support is pointless. Not enough demand to hold the level. Once this support will be broken downwards I will go SHORT. Massive SHORT, down to new lows around $48,000 - $52,000. But not earlier than below $62k.
What stops me from opening this swing SHORT right here? The crypto capitalization — $TOTAL has just reached the 1W MA300 which was never broken downwards before. Luckily, this level alignes perfectly with the $62,000 support on Bitcoin.
TLDR: As long as $BTC stays below $74,000 resistance — I can't speak about being bullish on crypto, especially on Bitcoin (some alts can still perform well). A break below the $62,000 support will send crypto to new lows. #CryptoSelloffTriggersMultipleWhaleLiquidations #BitcoinActiveSupplyInProfitDropsBelow45% #USSpotXRPETFsSeeLargestWeeklyOutflowIn8Months #WhatWillDriveCryptoandStocks’NextRebound?