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MORE THAN HALF OF ACTIVE BITCOIN IS IN LOSS. IS THIS THE BOTTOM?
An analyst called Darkfost reported that less than 45% of Bitcoin’s active supply is now in profit. “Active” means coins that moved recently. He leaves out coins that have not moved in more than 10 years, because those are mostly lost or sleeping. So most of the coins that are actually in play were bought higher than today’s price.
Two things to know before you call it a bottom:
There are two rulers. If you count all coins, one analyst’s snapshot shows about 54% still in profit. Old lows on that all-coins ruler were about 44% in March 2020 and November 2022. So “45%” is not the same number as the old bottom signals. It measures pain, not time. Darkfost’s own rule is that below 40% has often lined up with lows. “Often”, not always, and we are not at 40%. On 7 Oct the same measure was near 60% with Bitcoin around $84,000. That is a fast slide, not a floor.
Also remember: this counts coins, not people.
What happened to price: $BTC touched about $62,000, then traded around $63,000 to $65,000. More than $2 billion of borrowed trades were forced closed.
What I am watching:
$62,000 to $66,000, the big buying zone from August. Below it, the June low near $58,500. The 200-week line, about $67,800 to $69,500 depending on how it is calculated. A weekly close above it would help. Whether the profit number sinks toward 40% while price stops falling. Whether stablecoin supply and ETF money stop leaving.
My snapshot: $BTC Bearish for now. Stress is real, but a bottom is not confirmed.
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: an indicator is a weather report, not a calendar. Don’t use one number as a buy button. If you buy, do it in small parts, with money you can afford to lose and no borrowed money. Don’t let your fear become the whales’ cheap price.
Question: $BTC
MORE THAN HALF OF ACTIVE BITCOIN IS IN LOSS. IS THIS THE BOTTOM?
An analyst called Darkfost reported that less than 45% of Bitcoin’s active supply is now in profit. “Active” means coins that moved recently. He leaves out coins that have not moved in more than 10 years, because those are mostly lost or sleeping. So most of the coins that are actually in play were bought higher than today’s price.
Two things to know before you call it a bottom:
There are two rulers. If you count all coins, one analyst’s snapshot shows about 54% still in profit. Old lows on that all-coins ruler were about 44% in March 2020 and November 2022. So “45%” is not the same number as the old bottom signals. It measures pain, not time. Darkfost’s own rule is that below 40% has often lined up with lows. “Often”, not always, and we are not at 40%. On 7 Oct the same measure was near 60% with Bitcoin around $84,000. That is a fast slide, not a floor.
Also remember: this counts coins, not people.
What happened to price: $BTC touched about $62,000, then traded around $63,000 to $65,000. More than $2 billion of borrowed trades were forced closed.
What I am watching:
$62,000 to $66,000, the big buying zone from August. Below it, the June low near $58,500. The 200-week line, about $67,800 to $69,500 depending on how it is calculated. A weekly close above it would help. Whether the profit number sinks toward 40% while price stops falling. Whether stablecoin supply and ETF money stop leaving.
My snapshot: $BTC Bearish for now. Stress is real, but a bottom is not confirmed.
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: an indicator is a weather report, not a calendar. Don’t use one number as a buy button. If you buy, do it in small parts, with money you can afford to lose and no borrowed money. Don’t let your fear become the whales’ cheap price.
Question: $BTC
