The past couple of Days have been a distraction for the bulls of Bitcoin, as we have seen the asset get hit hard by:
1. Lingering Fallout from the $6.3B Binance Hack:
Even after Binance moved to restore the stolen funds from the October 29 North Korean ("TraderTraitor") breach and U.S. authorities began seizing $1.2B of the assets, counterparty anxiety and headline risk have kept spot buyers sidelined.
2. U.S. Tech & AI Turmoil:
Governance shockwaves at Nvidia (sending NVDA shares tumbling up to 14% intraday) combined with MSCI’s upcoming December 1 removal of Strategy (MSTR) from its global indexes have triggered a broad risk-off rotation across high-beta tech and crypto equities.
3. Relentless Spot ETF Outflows:
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled roughly $1.44 billion over five consecutive sessions (and ~$2.5 billion since October 30).
Now the real question: Is Bitcoin about to make new lows, or is it time to rally?
If we look at the past cycles of Bitcoin, we can see clearly that Bitcoin has a bottom between 550 to 500 days before the halving.
1. 2012–2016 Cycle: 542 days
2. 2016–2020 Cycle: 513 days
