Myth vs. data: Is Friday the 13th unlucky? Since 1931, 54.4% of the S&P 500's 160 Friday-the-13th sessions closed higher, vs. 52.3% on all days.
→ Average move +0.04% vs. +0.03% for all days; share of drops worse than −2%: 3.1% vs. 3.4% for all days
→ Worst: Oct. 13, 1989, −6.1%; best: Mar. 13, 2020, +9.3%
→ Since 2000, 55.6% of 45 Friday-the-13th sessions closed higher
The bad luck isn't on the calendar, it's in the headlines. Worst case: if the 10Y breaks above 5.15% today, the red day gets pinned on Friday the 13th, but the real culprit is rates; on my radar.
#Stocks #Economy
Watching: $SPY $IVV $QQQ
→ Average move +0.04% vs. +0.03% for all days; share of drops worse than −2%: 3.1% vs. 3.4% for all days
→ Worst: Oct. 13, 1989, −6.1%; best: Mar. 13, 2020, +9.3%
→ Since 2000, 55.6% of 45 Friday-the-13th sessions closed higher
The bad luck isn't on the calendar, it's in the headlines. Worst case: if the 10Y breaks above 5.15% today, the red day gets pinned on Friday the 13th, but the real culprit is rates; on my radar.
#Stocks #Economy
Watching: $SPY $IVV $QQQ
