PPI lands tonight — Bitcoin's next test is data, not a chart pattern
$BTC $71,612 (-3.86% 24h, range $71,255-$74,556, Binance vol $1.12B, ~03:00 PKT). ETH $2,020 (-2.78%). 29 of the top 30 coins are red; 24h liquidations ~$720M, ~85% longs (CoinGlass).
The event: US October PPI, Fri 13 Nov, 18:30 PKT. Consensus (Dow Jones): headline +0.4% m/m, +6.6% y/y; core +0.3% m/m. September printed +1.3% m/m — biggest monthly rise since Mar 2022. Tuesday's CPI already ran hot (+0.4% vs +0.3% expected).
Why it matters: CME FedWatch prices a ~91% chance of a Dec Fed hike (25bp). A hot PPI locks that in and pressures risk; a soft one opens the door to a bounce. ETF flows are already against us: -$299.8M Wed, 5th straight outflow day, ~$1.44B out in Nov (Farside).
Technicals: 12 Nov candle O $74,015, L $71,255 — a close below $72,000, first since 20 Aug, is on the table at 05:00 PKT. SMA200 $73,137, EMA20 $76,878, RSI14 31.4.
Expectations — Deribit 13 Nov expiry, index ~$71,470 (not a guarantee): above $72,000 ~28%, chop $70,000-$72,000 ~59%, below $70,000 ~13%. Market expects chop, not a reclaim: P(above SMA200 $73,137) only ~6%.
Plan: stand aside until the 18:30 PKT print. Long only on a soft print + daily close above $73,137, stop below $71,255; targets $73,137 then $74,888. Hot print + close below $71,255 opens $70,000. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
$BTC $71,612 (-3.86% 24h, range $71,255-$74,556, Binance vol $1.12B, ~03:00 PKT). ETH $2,020 (-2.78%). 29 of the top 30 coins are red; 24h liquidations ~$720M, ~85% longs (CoinGlass).
The event: US October PPI, Fri 13 Nov, 18:30 PKT. Consensus (Dow Jones): headline +0.4% m/m, +6.6% y/y; core +0.3% m/m. September printed +1.3% m/m — biggest monthly rise since Mar 2022. Tuesday's CPI already ran hot (+0.4% vs +0.3% expected).
Why it matters: CME FedWatch prices a ~91% chance of a Dec Fed hike (25bp). A hot PPI locks that in and pressures risk; a soft one opens the door to a bounce. ETF flows are already against us: -$299.8M Wed, 5th straight outflow day, ~$1.44B out in Nov (Farside).
Technicals: 12 Nov candle O $74,015, L $71,255 — a close below $72,000, first since 20 Aug, is on the table at 05:00 PKT. SMA200 $73,137, EMA20 $76,878, RSI14 31.4.
Expectations — Deribit 13 Nov expiry, index ~$71,470 (not a guarantee): above $72,000 ~28%, chop $70,000-$72,000 ~59%, below $70,000 ~13%. Market expects chop, not a reclaim: P(above SMA200 $73,137) only ~6%.
Plan: stand aside until the 18:30 PKT print. Long only on a soft print + daily close above $73,137, stop below $71,255; targets $73,137 then $74,888. Hot print + close below $71,255 opens $70,000. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto