#hotcpidecemberhikepriced HOT CPI, DECEMBER RATE HIKE: IS THE BIGGEST RISK ALREADY PRICED IN?
US inflation increased 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast. That is still slower than September's 0.6%, but inflation is not cooling as quickly as markets hoped.
Before the CPI release, markets were already pricing a 98.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December.
This raises an important question.
If almost everyone expects the Fed to raise rates, how much additional damage can the actual announcement cause?
The bigger risk may be what the Federal Reserve says about the months ahead. Will rates remain higher for longer? Will inflation continue to surprise? And how much liquidity will remain available for risk assets?
For Bitcoin, I am watching three things:
Whether BTC can hold the $72,000–$73,000 support area.
Whether the dollar and US Treasury yields continue rising.
Whether the Fed's December decision brings another surprise or simply confirms what markets already expect.
I don't believe one CPI report determines Bitcoin's future. But ignoring inflation and monetary policy would be a mistake.
My question to the community: If a December rate hike is already almost fully priced in, are traders preparing for the announcement itself, or for the Fed's message about what comes next?
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #Inflation #CryptoMarket
US inflation increased 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast. That is still slower than September's 0.6%, but inflation is not cooling as quickly as markets hoped.
Before the CPI release, markets were already pricing a 98.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December.
This raises an important question.
If almost everyone expects the Fed to raise rates, how much additional damage can the actual announcement cause?
The bigger risk may be what the Federal Reserve says about the months ahead. Will rates remain higher for longer? Will inflation continue to surprise? And how much liquidity will remain available for risk assets?
For Bitcoin, I am watching three things:
Whether BTC can hold the $72,000–$73,000 support area.
Whether the dollar and US Treasury yields continue rising.
Whether the Fed's December decision brings another surprise or simply confirms what markets already expect.
I don't believe one CPI report determines Bitcoin's future. But ignoring inflation and monetary policy would be a mistake.
My question to the community: If a December rate hike is already almost fully priced in, are traders preparing for the announcement itself, or for the Fed's message about what comes next?
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #Inflation #CryptoMarket
