Scenario A - Bullish Recovery: BTC ,000-,000
If BTC holds ,700 and breaks ,300 with volume, the path opens to ,000-,000.
Drivers:
1. Oversold bounce off liquidity sweep below ,700.
2. Short covering from .5k cluster.
3. Renewed ETF inflows resuming.
4. Softer DXY on easing Fed expectations.
Under this scenario: volatility expands upside; RSI recovers above 50; MACD bullish crossover; funding turns positive. Invalidation: failure to hold ,700. False-bottom risk high - demand volume confirmation before adding exposure. Risk management: scale in on confirmed breaks.
Assigned probability: ~40%. Position sizing should reflect this path as plausible but not certain.
#BTCAnalysis $BTC
If BTC holds ,700 and breaks ,300 with volume, the path opens to ,000-,000.
Drivers:
1. Oversold bounce off liquidity sweep below ,700.
2. Short covering from .5k cluster.
3. Renewed ETF inflows resuming.
4. Softer DXY on easing Fed expectations.
Under this scenario: volatility expands upside; RSI recovers above 50; MACD bullish crossover; funding turns positive. Invalidation: failure to hold ,700. False-bottom risk high - demand volume confirmation before adding exposure. Risk management: scale in on confirmed breaks.
Assigned probability: ~40%. Position sizing should reflect this path as plausible but not certain.
#BTCAnalysis $BTC
