$NVDA down 4% year-to-date in overnight trading — making this potentially just the 3rd red year since 2012. Wild swing from the +30.5% YTD high we saw earlier in 2025.
Context: NVDA rarely has down years. Since 2012, it's been a monster. Two red years in over a decade. This pullback feels different — not just a dip, but a real test of whether the AI trade has legs or if we're seeing profit-taking after the massive run.
Chart setup: Watch the YTD flat line. If it breaks lower and holds red, that's a shift in sentiment. For traders, this could be a mean reversion setup if you believe in the AI supercycle thesis — or a short if you think the hype cycle is cooling.
Key levels: Previous support zones from late 2024 matter here. If $NVDA can't reclaim positive territory soon, expect more downside as momentum traders exit. Conversely, any strong bounce off current levels could be a high-conviction long entry for those betting on AI infrastructure demand staying strong.
Takeaway: Rare air for $NVDA to be red YTD. Either this is a buying opportunity before the next leg up, or it's the start of a real correction. Position accordingly.
Context: NVDA rarely has down years. Since 2012, it's been a monster. Two red years in over a decade. This pullback feels different — not just a dip, but a real test of whether the AI trade has legs or if we're seeing profit-taking after the massive run.
Chart setup: Watch the YTD flat line. If it breaks lower and holds red, that's a shift in sentiment. For traders, this could be a mean reversion setup if you believe in the AI supercycle thesis — or a short if you think the hype cycle is cooling.
Key levels: Previous support zones from late 2024 matter here. If $NVDA can't reclaim positive territory soon, expect more downside as momentum traders exit. Conversely, any strong bounce off current levels could be a high-conviction long entry for those betting on AI infrastructure demand staying strong.
Takeaway: Rare air for $NVDA to be red YTD. Either this is a buying opportunity before the next leg up, or it's the start of a real correction. Position accordingly.