Bitcoin is sitting exactly on the line that decides the next move, and I don't love how it got here.
$BTC is trading around $75,100 after dipping to $73,510 overnight — a $2,000 wick down that got bought back, but only just. The level that matters now is $74,700. Lose that on a daily close and the next stops are $73,500, then the 200-day average around $73,200 — the last line bulls have defended all year. Above, $75,900 is the first hurdle, and $76,500 is the one that actually changes the picture.
What worries me more than the chart is the flow behind it: US spot ETFs just posted their biggest weekly outflow since late June. That's not retail panic — that's institutions trimming. And with October CPI landing Tuesday morning at 8:30am ET, nobody with size is in a rush to buy ahead of it. RSI sitting near 37 tells the same story: oversold enough to bounce, weak enough that a bounce can fail.
My read: short-term bias stays cautious while price sits under the 200-day EMA at $76,500. I'd rather see a reclaim of that level with real volume than try to catch the knife at $74,700. If CPI comes in cool and BTC closes back above $76,500, I'm wrong — and the squeeze toward $78,000–$79,300 is on. Until then, this is a market to watch, not chase.
Where do you see BTC closing this week — back above $76K, or testing $73K?
Not financial advice.
$BTC is trading around $75,100 after dipping to $73,510 overnight — a $2,000 wick down that got bought back, but only just. The level that matters now is $74,700. Lose that on a daily close and the next stops are $73,500, then the 200-day average around $73,200 — the last line bulls have defended all year. Above, $75,900 is the first hurdle, and $76,500 is the one that actually changes the picture.
What worries me more than the chart is the flow behind it: US spot ETFs just posted their biggest weekly outflow since late June. That's not retail panic — that's institutions trimming. And with October CPI landing Tuesday morning at 8:30am ET, nobody with size is in a rush to buy ahead of it. RSI sitting near 37 tells the same story: oversold enough to bounce, weak enough that a bounce can fail.
My read: short-term bias stays cautious while price sits under the 200-day EMA at $76,500. I'd rather see a reclaim of that level with real volume than try to catch the knife at $74,700. If CPI comes in cool and BTC closes back above $76,500, I'm wrong — and the squeeze toward $78,000–$79,300 is on. Until then, this is a market to watch, not chase.
Where do you see BTC closing this week — back above $76K, or testing $73K?
Not financial advice.
