Agricultural markets face supply pressure and fund selling ahead of WASDE in the week of November 2–7
🌾 US grains remained under pressure, despite a modest rebound in corn and soybeans late in the week. Export demand provided some support against seasonal supply, but a sustained recovery remains unconfirmed.
🚜 As of November 1, US corn harvesting was 74% complete and soybean harvesting reached 88%. Corn remained behind its five-year average, while soybeans were ahead, maintaining pressure from newly harvested supplies.
📉 Speculative positioning added to the weakness. By November 3, managed money had cut its corn net long by roughly 72,300 contracts to 8,800. Its soybean net long fell by around 51,100 contracts to 142,700.
🚢 Import demand remains a key source of support, particularly as China continues buying US soybeans. However, near-term orders need to translate into steady shipments to absorb supplies and improve the price outlook.
🌦️ South American weather is becoming increasingly important for the new crop. Central Brazil’s rainfall warrants attention, as prolonged moisture shortages could affect developing soybeans. El Niño remains a medium-term risk with varying regional effects.
🌴 Palm oil faces a substantial inventory overhang. Malaysia’s end-September stocks reached approximately 3.51 million tonnes, up 24.5% from August. Recovery prospects depend on exports and the pace of the seasonal production decline.
📊 Attention now turns to the November 10 WASDE report and revisions to yields, demand and ending stocks. A tighter balance than expected could support prices, while ample supplies and favourable Brazilian weather would continue to limit gains.
#AgriculturalMarkets $GRASS $TREE
🌾 US grains remained under pressure, despite a modest rebound in corn and soybeans late in the week. Export demand provided some support against seasonal supply, but a sustained recovery remains unconfirmed.
🚜 As of November 1, US corn harvesting was 74% complete and soybean harvesting reached 88%. Corn remained behind its five-year average, while soybeans were ahead, maintaining pressure from newly harvested supplies.
📉 Speculative positioning added to the weakness. By November 3, managed money had cut its corn net long by roughly 72,300 contracts to 8,800. Its soybean net long fell by around 51,100 contracts to 142,700.
🚢 Import demand remains a key source of support, particularly as China continues buying US soybeans. However, near-term orders need to translate into steady shipments to absorb supplies and improve the price outlook.
🌦️ South American weather is becoming increasingly important for the new crop. Central Brazil’s rainfall warrants attention, as prolonged moisture shortages could affect developing soybeans. El Niño remains a medium-term risk with varying regional effects.
🌴 Palm oil faces a substantial inventory overhang. Malaysia’s end-September stocks reached approximately 3.51 million tonnes, up 24.5% from August. Recovery prospects depend on exports and the pace of the seasonal production decline.
📊 Attention now turns to the November 10 WASDE report and revisions to yields, demand and ending stocks. A tighter balance than expected could support prices, while ample supplies and favourable Brazilian weather would continue to limit gains.
#AgriculturalMarkets $GRASS $TREE
