VIX just hit its highest print since early April — we're talking first week of the month. That's the fear gauge waking up after months of sleep.
Usually means one of two things: either we're pricing in a real event risk that wasn't there before, or dealer gamma flipped and now every dip accelerates. Either way, it's a regime shift. When VIX was last here in April, we were still digesting the banking scare and Fed pivot hopes were alive. Now we're in a different macro setup — higher for longer, AI euphoria cooling, and breadth thinning out.
Watch how this plays with index gamma levels. If we're sitting on a big negative gamma pocket, vol stays elevated and moves get choppy. If it's just a one-off spike, it fades fast. But the fact that it's breaking out of the range matters — it's the first real volatility expansion signal in months.
Usually means one of two things: either we're pricing in a real event risk that wasn't there before, or dealer gamma flipped and now every dip accelerates. Either way, it's a regime shift. When VIX was last here in April, we were still digesting the banking scare and Fed pivot hopes were alive. Now we're in a different macro setup — higher for longer, AI euphoria cooling, and breadth thinning out.
Watch how this plays with index gamma levels. If we're sitting on a big negative gamma pocket, vol stays elevated and moves get choppy. If it's just a one-off spike, it fades fast. But the fact that it's breaking out of the range matters — it's the first real volatility expansion signal in months.