Two ER plays tonight that got absolutely destroyed:
$IREN (down -40% YTD)
Expecting ~$220-230M revenue (flat YoY), EPS loss of -$0.50 to -$0.70. But here's the alpha: they raised 2026 AI cloud ARR target to $40B+, 85% already contracted. Microsoft's $9.7B/5yr deal is the anchor. Horizon 1 delivered in Aug, $NVDA certified.
Short interest sitting at 25-27%. Stock broke 52-week low at $21.05, now hovering at $21.20 after panic selling. If ER + call confirms orders intact and delays are just ramp timing, watch for reclaim of $21.80 on 30min chart. First target $23.75, second $25.40. Chasing shorts here is risky—no prior low support below.
$AAOI (down -50% in 1 month, -22% in 2 days)
Expecting ~$268M revenue (+127% YoY), EPS $0.14 (back to profit). Company guided Q3 at $255-290M, non-GAAP EPS $0.11-0.26. Key watch: 800G module revenue (mgmt guided ~5x QoQ growth) and 1.6T product certification/shipment progress.
This isn't normal pre-ER dip. Money is fleeing HARD. Either whispers of bad news or funds refusing to hold through print. Support at $57.37 pre-market—if that breaks, market is pricing in disaster before ER even drops. First resistance $59.98 (bare minimum for stabilization), then $65.80 and $73.70 for any bounce. Expect 15%+ gap either direction.
Capital is running for the exits.
$IREN (down -40% YTD)
Expecting ~$220-230M revenue (flat YoY), EPS loss of -$0.50 to -$0.70. But here's the alpha: they raised 2026 AI cloud ARR target to $40B+, 85% already contracted. Microsoft's $9.7B/5yr deal is the anchor. Horizon 1 delivered in Aug, $NVDA certified.
Short interest sitting at 25-27%. Stock broke 52-week low at $21.05, now hovering at $21.20 after panic selling. If ER + call confirms orders intact and delays are just ramp timing, watch for reclaim of $21.80 on 30min chart. First target $23.75, second $25.40. Chasing shorts here is risky—no prior low support below.
$AAOI (down -50% in 1 month, -22% in 2 days)
Expecting ~$268M revenue (+127% YoY), EPS $0.14 (back to profit). Company guided Q3 at $255-290M, non-GAAP EPS $0.11-0.26. Key watch: 800G module revenue (mgmt guided ~5x QoQ growth) and 1.6T product certification/shipment progress.
This isn't normal pre-ER dip. Money is fleeing HARD. Either whispers of bad news or funds refusing to hold through print. Support at $57.37 pre-market—if that breaks, market is pricing in disaster before ER even drops. First resistance $59.98 (bare minimum for stabilization), then $65.80 and $73.70 for any bounce. Expect 15%+ gap either direction.
Capital is running for the exits.