Post-election: Democrats took both chambers of Congress. In the previous 7 instances since 1954, the S&P 500 was higher one year later 7 out of 7 times.
→ Average: +10.7% in 3 months, +17.5% in 6 months, +15.5% in 1 year
→ First month positive in 6 of 7, with a double-digit drop in 1974
→ ES futures tagged 7,490 overnight, then flipped to +1.1%
My take: 7 for 7 is strong, but the sample is small, and the first month could stumble like 1974. Worst case: if futures drop below 7,490, the election rally lasts a single day. I'm watching that level closely.
#Investing #SP500
→ Average: +10.7% in 3 months, +17.5% in 6 months, +15.5% in 1 year
→ First month positive in 6 of 7, with a double-digit drop in 1974
→ ES futures tagged 7,490 overnight, then flipped to +1.1%
My take: 7 for 7 is strong, but the sample is small, and the first month could stumble like 1974. Worst case: if futures drop below 7,490, the election rally lasts a single day. I'm watching that level closely.
#Investing #SP500
