My lean for the week: $BTC holds the $76,400 area and grinds back toward $80,000 — but I wouldn't chase it here. Monday's push to about $78,600 was the third straight day of gains, and the overnight fade back toward $77,000 tells me buyers are still cautious, not convinced. That's understandable a week after a $6.3B exchange hack, with US midterm results landing during Wednesday's Asian hours and the October jobs report due Nov 6.
The setup I like is the floor, not the ceiling. CoinDCX's read puts the 200-day EMA at $76,441, and buyers have defended that area through the sell-off that swept toward $76,200 last week. As long as that holds on a daily close, the path of least resistance is sideways-to-up into the $78,300–$78,500 zone, then a real test of $80,000 — which is both the psychological line and near the 50-day EMA at $80,289.
What would change my mind is simple: a daily close below the 200-day EMA flips me, and then $75,000 is the next floor on the options map. And a daily close above $80,000 is the opposite trigger — that reopens the road back over $81,000, where Bitcoin traded on Oct 28. Until one of those closes prints, I'm treating this as a range to trade carefully around, not a breakout to pile into.
Not financial advice.
The setup I like is the floor, not the ceiling. CoinDCX's read puts the 200-day EMA at $76,441, and buyers have defended that area through the sell-off that swept toward $76,200 last week. As long as that holds on a daily close, the path of least resistance is sideways-to-up into the $78,300–$78,500 zone, then a real test of $80,000 — which is both the psychological line and near the 50-day EMA at $80,289.
What would change my mind is simple: a daily close below the 200-day EMA flips me, and then $75,000 is the next floor on the options map. And a daily close above $80,000 is the opposite trigger — that reopens the road back over $81,000, where Bitcoin traded on Oct 28. Until one of those closes prints, I'm treating this as a range to trade carefully around, not a breakout to pile into.
Not financial advice.
