FTX collapsed in November 2022 — that was $BTC's cycle bottom at ~$15.5k. The entire market capitulated, trust evaporated, and it took months to rebuild.
Now we're seeing the Binance hack unfold. If history rhymes, this could be the next cycle's bottom marker — possibly around 2026.
Three things to consider:
1. Major exchange failures create maximum fear and forced liquidations. That's when bottoms form — not when everyone's comfortable.
2. The 2022 bottom came after FTX, Luna, Celsius, 3AC all imploded within months. We needed a final capitulation event. Binance getting hacked could serve that same psychological function next cycle.
3. Positioning means: if you believe this pattern repeats, you accumulate when others panic. The question is whether Binance's issues escalate to FTX-level systemic risk, or if it's contained faster.
Market cycles don't repeat exactly, but the structure is familiar — euphoria, leverage, blow-up, capitulation, recovery. We're potentially watching the setup for the next bottom in real time.
Now we're seeing the Binance hack unfold. If history rhymes, this could be the next cycle's bottom marker — possibly around 2026.
Three things to consider:
1. Major exchange failures create maximum fear and forced liquidations. That's when bottoms form — not when everyone's comfortable.
2. The 2022 bottom came after FTX, Luna, Celsius, 3AC all imploded within months. We needed a final capitulation event. Binance getting hacked could serve that same psychological function next cycle.
3. Positioning means: if you believe this pattern repeats, you accumulate when others panic. The question is whether Binance's issues escalate to FTX-level systemic risk, or if it's contained faster.
Market cycles don't repeat exactly, but the structure is familiar — euphoria, leverage, blow-up, capitulation, recovery. We're potentially watching the setup for the next bottom in real time.